I've received some emails hotly denying that Stephen Harper's platform indicates any support for Campbell's discredited theory that tax cuts pay for themselves. Unfortunately for Harper, that interpretation means he is planning service cuts to every federal ministry, other than defense, of 21% over two years. That is far worse, $2.5 billion worse, than the $13.1 billion in cuts over two years that was originally identified in the Conservative platform, and the cuts get deeper in years three and four of the term.

The problems for Harper originate in two tables in his platform document. On the bottom of page 43, the document projects revenue, program expenditures and debt from fiscal year 2002-03 to fiscal year 2008-09. On the next page a table provides the Conservative promises on tax cuts and spending. The challenge is to reconcile the two tables.

One way to explain the Conservative platform is to say that the tax cuts are included in the revenue projections. The revenue projections are the same as what the Liberals assume. They match on the similar years shown in the 2004 mini-budget, and if Harper's figures are extended one year to 2009-10 using the same growth rate as the previous year, then the five year forward total is the same as the five year projection in the Liberal platform. That doesn't make sense in light of a massive cut in personal income taxes. The inconsistency may be explained by arguing that the Conservative tax cuts are considered "tax expenditures" and are included on the spending side of the projections. Without considering tax expenditures, the Conservative spending projections show $13.1 billion in spending cuts in the first two years. They say they will not cut transfer payments or defense, and they cannot cut debt servicing, so the cuts must come out of the remaining $36 billion per year in other program expenses (20% of federal spending) - everything from the CBC to Health Canada. However, if tax cuts are disguised as program spending, the corrected accounts would show $15.6 billion in cuts over the first two years, 21% in cuts. Wave good-by to the CBC, say farewell to immigration services, kiss-off health care on first nation reserves, and don't worry about bilingualism, there won't be any money for it.

Stephen Harper appears to have a hidden agenda. He either believes in the fiction that tax cuts pay for themselves, or he is planning program cuts like those of Mike Harris and Gordon Campbell. He needs to come clean before June 28th and say what he would really do.