Strategic Thoughts

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June 22, 2004

Hidden Agendas

Accusations of "hidden agendas" appear to be part of scare tactics in the last week of the campaign. The Conservative financial plan doesn't explain where the spending cuts will occur, so if the agenda isn't hidden, it certainly is not fully revealed. Paul Martin put himself in the same camp with a statement that his promise for health care could be at risk if he isn't rewarded with a majority government. According to Martin, cuts are necessary in other areas in order to fund his health promises and he would have difficulty making those cuts without the power of a majority. One of the problems Martin faces with that rhetoric is that it puts him in the same camp as Harper with an agenda for spending cuts but without transparency in telling the public where those cuts will be made.

Nastiness in the final week of the campaign may be an indication of how close the parties consider some of the contests. In some ways, a federal election is like 308 by-elections with one important difference. In a by-election there isn't the focus on the leader's tour, with constant media attention on what every leader is saying. Local organization is still important, as it is in a by-election, but the attention on each party's central campaign can make the local effort seem inconsequential. Local campaigns that are tight have candidates gritting their teeth hoping that their leader will score rather than stumble.

When the "right" was divided, some of its supporters bemoaned a system that presented the Liberals with a majority government despite having only 40.8% of the valid votes cast. It is ironic that with a united right, it looks like no party will receive as much as 40% of the national vote (the Block will probably get more than 40% in Quebec). Whichever party forms a government, it is in the best interest of Canada that it recognize its weak base of support. A new government needs to continue to reach out to Canadians and work with the other parties. Not only will there be no room for implementing hidden agendas, but there will be no room for implementing declared policies without the support of temporary parliamentary allies. In that environment, a vote on June 28th for the NDP can be most effective.

 

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