The May 17, 2005 election is only 16 months away; the Campbell government is no longer enjoying a honeymoon. Once the federal election is out of the way, New Democrats will allow constituency associations to hold nomination meetings. The BC Liberals in planning their nominations must determine who is going to run again. Of course, that doesn't prevent incumbents from losing their nomination, as happened to both Jeremy Dalton and Bonnie McKinnon before the 2001 election. Rumours persist that Gordon Campbell had his hand in both of those purges; he certainly did nothing to support those incumbent members of his caucus.

The ability of both parties to attract credible candidates depends on their respective assessments of the health of the Campbell government. New Democrats will be attracted by the opportunity to be competitive if the polls continue to show a narrow gap; the last Ipsos-Reid poll put the BC Liberals at 41% and the NDP at 37%. It is hard to believe that the NDP will form a government after only one term out, but even the prospect of a substantial opposition caucus might be enough to encourage good candidates to seek nominations. The NDP would be well advised to aspire to government but campaign to hold the Campbell government to account.

It is surprising that Paul Nettleton is the only member of the Campbell caucus to defect. At more than two and a half years since the last election, many government backbenchers must be growing tired of waiting for the often rumoured, but even more often delayed, cabinet shuffle. That discontent, combined with the prospect of defeat, may persuade some incumbents to get back to private life.

Apart from public opinion polls, the health of the Campbell government is challenged by scandals, cuts and credibility gaps, and no poll has been published since the RCMP raid on the legislature. Just as Glen Clark was plagued by the repetitive image of police entering his house, the Campbell government must be cursing the repetitive image of police officers carrying boxes out of the legislature. That investigation and any charges that arise from it could well drag out until the next election.

On the heels of the RCMP serving search warrants on legislative offices, Doug Walls, the Premier's relative by marriage, a former President of a provincial Liberal constituency association, and the acting CEO of the Interim Authority for Community Living, resigned from his government job following the appointment of a special prosecutor. The Minister responsible, Gordon Hogg, and the Premier, are doing everything possible to distance themselves from Walls. As is the case with David Basi and others named in the legislative raid, it must be presumed that Walls is completely innocent and may never be charged. He is named in an action by the CIBC, which became part of a commercial fraud investigation, and he was made acting CEO of an agency that was being groomed to ultimately handle over $500 million in taxpayer's money at a time when the CIBC action was public knowledge through court documents. Notwithstanding Campbell's protests, it has come out that he leased a car from Walls and that he stayed in the Walls home when visiting Prince George. Campbell and Hogg are both touched by this scandal.

In addition to troubles visited upon the Campbell government by special prosecutors and search warrants, the government will also have to deal with the fallout from implementing over $500 million in further cuts to services up to the eve of the election. A normal government would be rolling out good news as 2004 unfolds. At the same time, it will be in a fight with the provinces doctors and other health workers. The government will characterize that fight as being about greedy professionals who want more money for themselves, but the images of patients being put in closets says more than all the advertising government can buy.

The federal election, expected in May or June, will not make things any easier for the provincial government. Campbell heads a coalition that, as a result of the raid of the legislature, has seen favorites played. Former Alliance, now Conservative, supporters in the government caucus must be very annoyed after learning that ministerial assistants were actively involved in Paul Martin's organization. That can create internal divisions that weaken the coalition and make candidate recruitment, or incumbent retention, more difficult.

With less than 500 days before the election, the Campbell government has a very bad cold that might turn into pneumonia. Watch how behaviour changes amongst people who deal with a government that is on its sick bed.