It was refreshing to hear Finance Minister Gary Collins criticize the Fraser Institute's "tax freedom day". Collins correctly said that it is not right to simply divide provincial revenues by the population because that treats resource revenues as if they were taxes paid by individuals. The Campbell Liberals had no qualms about misusing the report when they were in opposition, but they said a lot of things then that they would rather ignore now.

In addition to spending plans, provincial budgets are about who pays how much, and the Campbell government has been changing who pays since its first day in power. On June 5, 2001, they announced $1.5 billion in tax cuts that were dramatically different than their election promise. Their promise was to "Cut the base personal income tax rate to the lowest rate of any province in Canada for the bottom two tax brackets, on the first $60,000 of income, within our first term." What they did was to cut all five tax brackets on day one with the consequence that the cuts were twice as expensive as they otherwise would have been, and the biggest benefits went to the highest income earners. In July they announced a further $790 million in corporate tax cuts. Since tax cuts don't pay for themselves, in the 1,000 days since the election, government has increased virtually every other tax and fee. Government apologists defend the increases as shifting the burden from income based taxes to consumption based taxes; it would be more accurate to say that the tax burden has shifted to lower and middle income earners. A six figure earner pays the same MSP premium as someone who makes $40,000; of course the Campbell government is likely to criticize the $40,000 income earner for being paid too much because in their world a $20 an hour worker can be replaced with a contract worker at half the wage.

In the fiscal year that ended March 31, 2001, personal income tax revenue was 25% of total government revenue; for the year ending March 31, 2005, it is projected to be 18.4% of total revenue. In 2000-01 MSP premiums raised $895 million (3.7% of total revenue); in 2004-05 they will raise $1.4 billion (5.2% of total revenue). The Campbell government also increased the gas tax, the sale tax, tobacco taxes, liquor markups, park use fees, water rental fees, hydro rates, driver license fees and dozens of other fees and taxes that take as much from low income people as they do from high income earners.

On budget day the books will reflect a new system of accounting that will include tuition fees from college and university students as part of government revenue. The fees, that have almost doubled under Campbell, will be counted towards balancing the budget. They are another example of shifting who pays how much in tax.

No one should think that the damage done by the Campbell government can be easily undone. Suddenly putting things back the way they were in 2001 would cause as much damage to the economy as has been done with the instability wreaked by Campbell. BC needs to grow its way out of its economic problems. With a change in government and rising revenues it might be possible to freeze or reduce some of the regressive taxes and fees; the need to restore public services such as child protection and legal aid will no doubt deserve first call on new resources. What the Campbell government will do might be revealed in the budget.

When the budget for 2004-05 is tabled on Tuesday it will be accompanied by "service plans" and projections for 2005-06 and 2006-07. Watch for flashy announcements for 2006 and beyond, in other words election promises. Keep in mind that those promises can change, or be reinterpreted, just like the promise not to sell BC Rail. Even the budget for the year ending March 31, 2005, cannot be accepted at face value since the Auditor General's report on that year will not be available until after the election. The most information we will have will be the unaudited Third Quarter Financial report that will be tabled in February 2005 with next year's budget. Tuesday's budget is a pre-election document that will try to take attention away from another year of substantial cuts to public services.

Budget week is when the Mustel Group will release the results of the first opinion poll on voter intention to be made public since the raid on the legislature and other government scandals. That may be a more interesting document than anything Collins produces.