Strategic Thoughts

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May 7, 2004

Expectations

Based on some of the email I have received it appears that there is a need for an adjustment of expectations. One of the frequent comments is "we cannot wait until the next election". Other correspondents suggest that a new government should be expected to reverse the Campbell cuts quickly.

There is no choice but to wait until May 17, 2005. Nothing is going to overthrow the Campbell government, and it certainly isn't going to change from within. It cannot be presumed that the government will change after next year's election. The Campbell Liberals and their corporate backers will outspend the NDP by more than two to one. In 2001 the Campbell Liberals spent $6.6 million; the NDP spent $3.0 million. In 2001 the Liberals pulled their negative attack ads. In 2005 they will be dusted off for a very nasty campaign. Those who want to circle the wagons and shoot inwards will only help Campbell cling to power.

There is no magic wand that will suddenly allow a new government to reverse what will be four years of cuts by May 17, 2005. There is no time machine and there is no money machine. Balanced budgets are not an evil right wing scheme. They are a necessity if government is not going to become hostage to the banks and international money markets. NDP governments in Manitoba and Saskatchewan know that, and Carole James knows that. Without a bottomless pit of money, a new government will have to look very carefully at competing demands for each available dollar. Campbell Liberals will probably accuse James of plotting to reverse the tax cuts. She has already made it clear that is not on the agenda, and anyone who thinks about what would be involved can see how destabilizing another radical tax shift would be for BC's fragile economy. Campbell not only made $2.2 billion in income and corporate tax cuts, but he also clawed back $1.1 billion through increases in the sales tax, MSP premiums and in dozens of fees. Some people saw all of their tax cuts clawed back. Marginal changes over several years may create greater tax fairness but there isn't a pot of gold waiting to be swooped up by the taxman. That means money to reverse cuts or meet new spending priorities must come from economic growth. The rate of growth in BC's economy will set an upper limit on government's ability to spend. Those economic realities are as true for the NDP as they are for the Campbell Liberals. Changing the government will not change the facts of life; expectations need to adjust to those limits.

The mean spirited Campbell government has shown that its agenda consists of union bashing, program cutting and deregulating. A change in government can produce a consultative, inclusive style for the development and implementation of public policy. It cannot produce magic. Those who listen carefully will hear Carole James attempting to instill realistic expectations as she works to hold the Campbell government to account.

 

 

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