July
14, 2004
Provincial
Election Date 2009
Gordon
Campbell's admission that he didn't think through the timing
of the fixed election date relative to the release of the
audited financial statements, "public accounts",
is consistent with many of the other things his government
didn't think through. No one should confuse the legislative
requirement for a balanced budget with what the public accounts
may reveal after the fiscal year is over. There is no legislative
requirement that the government finish the year in the black;
it only has to submit a budget that is balanced at the beginning
of the year. Of course, if there are significant differences
between the budget and the year end results, there may be
a political price to pay in terms of lost credibility. It
is hard to lose what the government doesn't have.
This
year's budget calls for a surplus of $100 million, or $200
million if the forecast allowance is not used. $200 million
is less than 1% of the year's expected revenue. Unless Finance
Minister Gary Collins has understated expenses and overstated
revenue, hitting that target is like tossing a penny and having
it land on its edge.
The next
election is scheduled for May 17, 2005, the following for
May 12, 2009. The dates are fixed by Section 23 of the Constitution
Act; however, a majority vote in the legislature can
amend the Act. If Campbell's oversight is to be corrected
by moving the date to either the fall of 2008 or the fall
of 2009, it would mean the next government would have either
a three and a half or four and a half year term. Having a
fall election does not solve the problem of uncertainty over
the state of the province's finances. By October, the fiscal
year which starts April 1st is almost half over; the public
only has the benefit of an unaudited first quarter financial
report made available in September, and the government is
busy putting the finishing touches on the next budget that
gets tabled in February. At least in May, the public has the
four year record of the government, including three audited
financial statements, a third quarter unaudited statement
for the final year and a budget and three year outlook for
what lies ahead. It is probably best to keep the fixed election
date in May, and not disillusion the public by making "fixed"
a moveable target with amendments to the legislation every
time a new government gets elected.
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