Strategic Thoughts

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July 14, 2004

Provincial Election Date 2009

Gordon Campbell's admission that he didn't think through the timing of the fixed election date relative to the release of the audited financial statements, "public accounts", is consistent with many of the other things his government didn't think through. No one should confuse the legislative requirement for a balanced budget with what the public accounts may reveal after the fiscal year is over. There is no legislative requirement that the government finish the year in the black; it only has to submit a budget that is balanced at the beginning of the year. Of course, if there are significant differences between the budget and the year end results, there may be a political price to pay in terms of lost credibility. It is hard to lose what the government doesn't have.

This year's budget calls for a surplus of $100 million, or $200 million if the forecast allowance is not used. $200 million is less than 1% of the year's expected revenue. Unless Finance Minister Gary Collins has understated expenses and overstated revenue, hitting that target is like tossing a penny and having it land on its edge.

The next election is scheduled for May 17, 2005, the following for May 12, 2009. The dates are fixed by Section 23 of the Constitution Act; however, a majority vote in the legislature can amend the Act. If Campbell's oversight is to be corrected by moving the date to either the fall of 2008 or the fall of 2009, it would mean the next government would have either a three and a half or four and a half year term. Having a fall election does not solve the problem of uncertainty over the state of the province's finances. By October, the fiscal year which starts April 1st is almost half over; the public only has the benefit of an unaudited first quarter financial report made available in September, and the government is busy putting the finishing touches on the next budget that gets tabled in February. At least in May, the public has the four year record of the government, including three audited financial statements, a third quarter unaudited statement for the final year and a budget and three year outlook for what lies ahead. It is probably best to keep the fixed election date in May, and not disillusion the public by making "fixed" a moveable target with amendments to the legislation every time a new government gets elected.

 

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