The CBC quoted Gordon Campbell and Gary Collins as downplaying NDP gains in Monday's election. Perhaps they should listen to John Reynolds who was quoted on CBC radio the morning after the election saying that the Campbell Liberals need to be worried about the results. Throughout the campaign David Anderson expressed concern that the Liberals would lose votes as the result of anger directed at Campbell. It is not just Jack Layton who reminded voters that the Campbell style would not be good for Canada.

Campbell could have chosen to be gracious and simply congratulated everyone who participated in all campaigns, and particularly those who will be returning to Ottawa as MPs. There doesn't appear to be a gracious bone in Campbell's body. In saying that "three out of four British Columbians aren't responding to the NDP's message", he missed the opportunity to send a message that he is listening to concerns regarding his government. The NDP's federal vote is always smaller than the NDP's provincial vote. In the 2001 provincial election the NDP received only 343,156 votes. On Monday in BC the NDP received 458,377 federal votes (compared to 182,993 in the 2000 federal election). The party's election machinery got a good oiling, campaign workers got excellent experience, and supporters got a boost of enthusiasm that they haven't had for nearly a decade. Hopefully Campbell will follow his own advice, not worry and coast to the kind of surprise that greeted Stephen Harper.

In 2000, the NDP won 1,093,838 votes nationwide; this time the NDP won 2,116,536 nationwide. The increase of over 100% is a victory that cannot be claimed by the Liberals or Conservatives, but it translated into just 5 additional seats (14 in 2000, 19 now).

The NDP won 5 seats in BC. It finished second in 15 seats. In New Westminister-Coquitlam, the NDP finished second to the Conservatives by only 55 votes. In that riding, a vote for the Liberals helped elect a Conservative. The same was true in Vancouver Island North where the Conservative candidate beat the NDP by just 117 votes, and in the Southern Interior where the Conservative candidate beat the NDP by 848 votes.

Canada's political parties all have both good news and bad news coming out of the election. For the Liberals, a minority government is better than a complete loss. For the NDP, a substantial increase in total vote and a modest increase in the number of seats is short of expectations but an improvement. The election lasted at least a week too long for the Conservatives, but they road tested their new party and learned the consequences of proposing the use of the not withstanding clause in the Charter of Rights. The Greens hit the lotto with public sector financing that will make them more prominent next time.

There are 308 seats in the new federal parliament. Half of that is 154 which is why 155 is referred to as the "magic number" it takes to win by 50% plus one when all MPs vote. The Liberals won 135 seats and the NDP 19. If they vote together, they are one vote short of the magic number but that presumes that all MPs are in attendance and that all votes are divisive. All it takes is one member to be absent to change that math. Everyone should wish Chuck Cadman a speedy recovery from his illness. A relapse or prolonged recovery will change the math in the House making it possible for government to survive a confidence motion with one less crucial vote.

Paul Martin may face more difficulties from his caucus than he faces from the NDP, the Block or the Conservatives. Martin promised a new independence for his MPs. In a slim minority government, each of his MPs can threaten to bring down his government. No one is dispensable; they will soon realize what that means in terms of personal power. In BC there are four or five MPs who probably expect cabinet positions (Anderson, Dosanjh, Emerson, K. Martin and Owen). It would take a very large cabinet to accommodate all of those expectations and still serve the rest of the country, but it would take a courageous Prime Minister to disappoint any of them.

Despite record turnout for advanced voting, voter turnout continued its downward trend. Only 13 million of 22 million registered voters (60.5%) voted, and not everyone who is eligible is registered. In ridings where the difference between first and second place is less than one vote per polling station, the low turnout must be particularly frustrating. Campaign workers know that it can be harder to persuade non-voters to vote than it is to change who a regular voter awards with a vote.

Another election is expected sometime in the fall of 2005 or spring of 2006 since that is about as long as minority governments typically last. This election became exciting because the polls suggested that a Conservative minority government was possible. Canada hadn't seen that possibility since the effective demise of the Progressive Conservatives. Thanks to Stephen Harper confirming his willingness to use the not withstanding clause to overrule the Charter of Rights, and Randy White's elaboration on what many feared as a hidden socially conservative agenda, the Conservative hopes were dashed in a rush back to the lesser of two evils. The Conservatives will require a new leader with roots as a true Progressive Conservative before voters again give them a chance like they had this time.

The NDP also has something to learn out of the campaign. It doesn't help to be dead right. Even if the inheritance tax proposal was intellectually sound, it did not help the campaign and it stood no chance of being implemented. It put Layton on the defensive and distracted attention from the rest of the tax fairness agenda. A platform needs to be tested by people with good political judgment. In May 2005 Carole James will face a much tougher test than Layton because she has a chance to form a government. She needs to learn from the mistakes that were made, recognize issues that must be addressed (like public sector bargaining), and be prepared to convincingly respond so as to control the agenda. Most of all, she needs to reject ridiculous platform proposals that may be dead right.