The
Campbell government is busy crowing over the November unemployment
rate of 6.4%. It is truly good news that every region in
the province now has single digit unemployment, but it is
sad that was not achieved through job growth. BC's unemployment
rate went down because thousands of workers became discouraged
and stopped looking for work. On a seasonally adjusted basis,
10,600 fewer people were in BC's labour force in November;
on an unadjusted basis there were 18,900 fewer workers in
BC's labour force. If those workers had continued looking
for work and reported that they were unemployed, the unemployment
rate would be 6.9%.
Employment
in BC has grown from 1.04 million in January 1976 to 2.09
million in November 2004 (seasonally adjusted). The graph
shows that almost steady increase, interrupted by the 1982-83
downturn and by the 2001 slowdown. The red line in the graph
shows seasonally adjusted employment; the black line shows
the long term trend (an exponential curve fitted to the
data). Notice that employment was above the trend line throughout
the 90s and below the trend line in the "New Era".
That won't stop the Campbell government from claiming that
its policies have produced record growth. What the record
actually shows for 2004 is that BC is trailing Canada in
job creation. As of November, employment for 2004 is up
by 1.0% in BC compared to 1.2% for Canada. BC's not just
below the Canadian average; when the provinces are ranked
in year to date job growth, BC finishes 8th. Maybe that
is why there are some "discouraged" workers.