Two themes are evident in recent statements from government MLAs. They talk about communication problems and about making tough decisions. Both are classic excuses from governments that are in trouble and reluctant to look at the real reasons.

Communication professionals are used to being the fall guys when governments get into trouble. Criticizing communications doesn't help though when the problem is the message. The Campbell government lacks credibility; and the BC Rail deal is a perfect example of why. They promised not to sell it,but instead of saying they changed their mind, they insist that it is subject to an operating agreement rather than a sale. They claim the 990 year lease is no different than what any business person experiences in an office lease. Leasehold improvements become the property of the landlord, but in the case of the BC Rail deal, a future government must purchase the company at market prices in order to regain control. That is not a communication problem, unless distorting the truth is considered communications.

When asked to react to the polls, Liberal apologists talk about making tough decisions rather than trying to be popular. Was it tough to cut the Ministry of Children and Family Development, betraying everything Campbell said while in opposition? Was it tough to double the amount of gambling after promising not to expand it? Was it tough to provide hundreds of millions of dollars in tax cuts to the top income brackets after promising to lower income tax for the bottom two brackets? People aren't mad at the government because of tough decisions; they are mad because it is doing the opposite of what it promised.

The April Mustel Group poll was the third poll to show the BC Liberal and NDP tied. A lot can happen in the year that remains before the next provincial election, but it is unlikely that the Campbell government can significantly change course. Its three year plans locked it into another year of nasty service cuts in the run up to the vote. It is probably too late in their mandate to do much other than change leaders, and even that is unlikely since Campbell won't go willingly and the divisiveness of a leadership race is probably more threatening than the prospect of a close election.

Rather than dealing with the reaction to their policies, the BC Liberals are likely to fight the 2005 election with a negative campaign. The 2001 election turned out to be one of the mildest in BC history. The negative attack adds remained in the "can" as Campbell smiled his way to the biggest ever BC majority. They knew that they were on the verge of a total NDP wipeout and that their biggest problem was what to do with all the backbenchers. In 2005 they will try to dust off the attack ads and portray Carole James as a reincarnation of Glen Clark. The public won't buy it. They know that James is her own person, and she is the kind of moderate Campbell promised to be.