Strategic Thoughts

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June 17, 2004

Aftermath of the Debates

During the Stanley Cup it was reported that US media ratings on the game were at a record low, although they were high in Canada. It is too bad that we don't have instant media ratings on the federal election leadership debates. In lieu of listening to the full debate, most people will hear professional spinmasters from each of the parties putting out their lines. Cynics might suggest that no one other than political junkies and paid media commentators could stand two uninterrupted hours of "vote for me".

The consensus on Wednesday morning seemed to be that there were no clear winners in the debate. That doesn't mean that there wasn't a very big loser. Paul Martin needed to stop his slide in the polls. He looked like a man in trouble who couldn't give a satisfactory answer to how he could be a leading Quebec politician and Minister of Finance without having at least some idea of what was going on in the sponsorship scandal.

Martin did not do what he had to do to take his overthrow of Chrétien to the next level. Soon he will be a footnote in history. The Liberal party will be in disarray as it goes through a bitter leadership race that attempts to purge the Martin supporters while also ridding itself of the corruption that produced a Harper victory. It will be a challenge for the perpetually governing party to heal itself in time to challenge Harper's minority government before it does real damage. Martin appointees like Dosanjh, Haggard, Chan and Emerson, not to mention Keith Martin, will be worse than useless in that process.

The NDP and the Block will form the effective opposition in the most unstable government Canada has ever produced. Liberal MPs, in the midst of a leadership fight, will be preoccupied with their internal fight. Disarray in the Liberal ranks will provide some security for Harper since it will take the Liberals more than a year before they will be ready to fight another election. As voters come to understand that the Liberals stand no chance to govern, they may listen to Jack Layton's message that NDP is the best party to hold a Harper government to account.

 

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