Jagrup Brar and Carole James deserve credit for an upset victory in the Surrey-Panorama Ridge by-election. Gordon Campbell turned it into a confidence vote in his government when he personally worked in the campaign side by side with many of his caucus colleagues. Anyone who looks at the map of electoral districts can see that the new constituency of Surrey-Panorama Ridge consists of neighbourhoods that traditionally vote against the NDP. The Campbell Liberals will try to minimize the damage by talking about how long it has been since a BC government has won a by-election, but what would they say if they lost a by-election in West Vancouver? Surrey-Panorama Ridge is little different.

Premier Campbell waited six months to call the Surrey–Panorama Ridge by-election, so long that the fall sitting of the legislature adjourned before votes were cast. The vote took place 201 days before the May 17, 2005, general election. The new MLA for Surrey-Panorama Ridge will be able to act as an advocate for his constituents, but he will only sit in the legislature for one very brief sitting starting February 8th. The government will probably introduce an interim supply bill and then adjourn the Legislature long before debate on estimates is concluded so as to avoid facing question period in the immediate pre-election period. Surrey’s new MLA may have a leg up in the 2005 campaign; the by-election election outcome is primarily about which party captured the pre-election advantage.

The cost to the public of the by-election will likely total over $300,000. That is the fault of the former Campbell Liberal who resigned to unsuccessfully run for the Martin Liberals. In addition to the public expense each of the campaigns was eligible to spend $57,000 by the candidate and another $33,000 by the candidate’s party. When the reports are filed, the Liberals and the NDP are likely to indicate that they both spent near the full $90,000 limit. That is a lot of money for an MLA who will hold office for less than 200 days, but the stakes were high in the boasting war over who enjoys public confidence after 1,261 days of the “New Era”.

Before the vote, pundits from each side said that the other side is likely to win. No partisan wants the public to interpret their loss as anything to generalize about with respect to the May 17th vote. That didn’t stop Premier Campbell and half his caucus and cabinet from high profile involvement in the campaign. Campbell positioned himself to take the fall for a by-election loss, and the credit for a victory. That’s consistent for the guy who more than doubled gambling in BC. He gambled big and lost in Surrey.

Kevin Falcon and Adriane Carr are the other big losers. Falcon is the senior minister for Surrey. He is responsible for encouraging Campbell and his cabinet to take a high profile position in the campaign. Carr put her credibility on the line and showed no significant gain; her final percentage was only slightly above the 8.8% the Green candidate received in 2001. Carr’s vote was less than what the Green Party has registered in opinion polls while Brar’s vote was higher; considering the composition of Surrey-Panorama Ridge, that may make the pollsters the other big losers.

Could BC afford more by-elections? The government went on a spending spree and eliminated the sales tax hike it imposed in 2002. BC’s media gained millions in taxpayer financed advertising. Of course, those who want responsible government might feel that another by-election could bankrupt the province.

Government insiders have expressed concern that the outrageous saturation advertising campaign that is little but partisan propaganda at taxpayer expense may have backfired. Not only are the ads full of misleading and inaccurate information, but they serve no public purpose. The public is not stupid when it comes to recognizing that tax money is being used when the ads should be paid for from the millions raised at Campbell’s fund raising dinners.

The question on the day after the by-election is whether Gordon Campbell will get the message sent by the voters in Surrey. Will he arrogantly dismiss the results as nothing new for governments and proceed with no change in course? After the near death experience of the NDP in May 2001, who would have thought that the party would be competitive in 2005? Joy MacPhail and Jenny Kwan deserve credit for the party’s recovery as the result of their incredible hard work on the floor of the Legislature. Carole James deserves credit as the new leader who took her New Democrats to new highs in the opinion polls and to a by-election victory. Jagrup Brar deserves credit as the kind of new New Democrat who appeals to his community. Gordon Campbell deserves credit for behaving so outrageously that he became the best organizer the NDP has ever seen. If he doesn’t change course, if he doesn’t get the message, many of the members of his caucus should dust off their resumes.