Under the headline "Is Opportunity Passing BC NDP?", Ipsos-Reid released its September poll which had the BC Liberals at 40% and the NDP at 38%, a statistical dead heat. It takes a lot of spin to translate that neck and neck horserace into lost opportunity, particularly when one looks at Ipsos-Reid's question "Do you think the BC Liberals deserve to be re-elected on their performance in government since the last election?" Province wide the answer was 35% yes, 63% no. The slight edge that is enjoyed by the Liberals is in the Lower Mainland where the numbers are 44 Liberal, 35 NDP, compared to 34 Liberal, 43 NDP, in the rest of the province. Even in the Lower Mainland, 57% of respondents said the BC Liberals do not deserve to be re-elected. A few respondents must have said they are voting Liberal even though they don't deserve it.

Ipsos-Reid polls quarterly on voter intention in March, July, September, and December. The major competing polling company, the Mustel Group, used to poll every other month, but it has published monthly polls since April. As shown in the graph, the Mustel numbers are much more volatile. Their September news release carried the headline, "Support for BC Liberals Continues to Rebound"; however, it may have rebounded from nothing more than the distortion of asking about provincial voter intention during the course of a federal election campaign. The Ipsos-Reid numbers are relatively stable since March when the NDP was ahead by three points followed by a one point lead for the Liberals in July and ending with a two point lead for the Liberals in September.

The Mustel Group samples 500 potential voters compared to the Ipsos-Reid sample of 800. The Mustel Group's September news release said "The increase in support for the BC Liberals comes largely from Lower Mainland voters; 52% would support BC Liberals (up from 40% in August) in contrast to 30% supporting the NDP (down from 43% in August)." In other words, the Mustel Group found a shift of 25 points between August and September in the Lower Mainland. If that's correct voter intent is extremely unstable. Compared to Mustel Group's 22 point lead in the Lower Mainland for the Liberals, Ipsos-Reid found a 9 point Liberal lead. Both polling companies agree that the Liberals are behind the NDP in the rest of the province.

The apparent advantage enjoyed by Campbell's party in the Lower Mainland may encourage him to call the by-election for Surrey-Panorama Ridge. It will be fascinating to see if he can pull it off when a substantial majority think that his government doesn't deserve to be re-elected on the basis of its performance since the last election.