The bottom line in the First Quarterly Report released by Finance Minister Gary Collins is good news; however, some of the specifics are not. Near the beginning of the 60 page document is a table that summarizes the major differences between the budget as presented in February and the state of finances today. One of the factors that contributed to increased revenue is a gain of $95 million due to post secondary fees. The line before the $95 million says "mainly impact of strategy to increase student spaces". Anyone who can divide must realize that is simply not true. The service plan for the Ministry of Advanced Education forecast an additional 3,217 spaces this year. Even if we are to believe that the Ministry of Finance overlooked revenue from those spaces when the budget was presented in February, tuition would have to be almost $30,000 for the new spaces if they were the primary reason for the $95 million gain in revenue. The truth is that the $95 million comes primarily from higher tuition fees for all students, not just those occupying new spaces. The apparent fudging on that item increases suspicion as to the accuracy of other figures and explanations.

The Report estimates $203 more revenue due to higher natural gas prices, but the February budget said revenue would increase between $120 million and $170 million for every fifty cent increase in the price of natural gas. The price, according to information that was part of Alberta's first quarter report, is $1.05 higher than was assumed in February. It looks like the Ministry of Finance is still low balling its revenue estimates. Unless production volumes are down, the price effect should produce a gain of almost $300 million. Underestimating revenue is a poor excuse for cutting programs.

Personal income tax revenue is expected to total $5.080 billion this year, $75 million more than originally expected, but $896 million less than what that tax raised in 2000-2001. BC may have gotten lucky with resource revenue, but the tax cuts have still not paid for themselves.

Medical Service Premiums are expected to raise $1.398 billion this year. A third of that is due to the 50% premium hike imposed by the Campbell government in 2002. Some would say that the improved bottom line results from painful service cuts, painful tax hikes and good luck with resource prices. While Campbell and Collins consult on what to do with the surplus, many British Columbians will be asking whether all that pain was really necessary. Many paid an unnecessarily high price that could have been moderated if Collins had been more accurate with his revenue forecasts.