Politicians of all stripes have a habit of making outrageous claims that defy measurement using anything close to a scientific method. This week Premier Gordon Campbell extended the concept of immeasurable outcomes to employment growth. In response to the 9.1% unemployment in BC reported by Statistics Canada, Campbell claimed that it would have been worse if he wasn't in power. So, how does an objective observer convert that into a testable hypothesis? One way is to look at the average job growth over the period of the NDP government and project it to September 2003. That can then be compared to what has actually been experienced under the Campbell government. Seasonally adjusted employment was 1.5937 million in October 1991; it was 1.9487 million in May 2001. That means average employment growth was 2.1% per year compounded monthly, so projecting employment to September 2003 at that rate gives 2.0421 million rather than the actual employment in the New Era of 2.0371. In other words, if employment growth had continued as it was in the NDP Era, last month there would have been 5,000 more people employed in BC instead of 5,000 fewer employed as was reported by Statistics Canada.

One of the most outrageous claims is that "tax cuts pay for themselves." If that is true, how can it be tested? Page 5 of Campbell's book of election promises said that "lower personal income tax rates lead to higher revenue - not less." If there were any confusion as to whether that meant higher revenue due to equalization payments or higher revenue from the tax that was cut, the book went on to say that "In Canada, nine provinces cut personal income tax rates since 1995, including BC. In every case, audited financial statements show that income tax revenues are now 9% to 36% higher than they were before rates were cut". So a testable hypothesis is "If tax rates are cut, then personal income tax revenue should increase by 9% to 36% more than before the tax cuts."

Personal income tax revenue in fiscal year 2000-2001 (the last NDP year) was $5.962 billion. The most recent projection from Finance Minster Garry Collins for fiscal year 2005-2006 (after the election) is for $5.337 billion - $625 million less than before the cuts or about the amount that has been cut out of social assistance or child protection.

The question if tax cuts pay for themselves when will that happen? Social scientists, might say that one has to look at personal income tax revenue in the base year (2000-01) and then add growth experienced by the average of other provinces before comparing when BC catches up to that target. At the current rate, that may be never.

Pay careful attention to claims by the Campbell government with respect to when promises will be fulfilled including when the economy will lead the nation. When pressed for dates, Campbell apologists refer to the indefinite future. On the odd occasion when a date is given, it is usually after the next election. On May 17, 2005, voters will again be asked to give Gordon Campbell another blank cheque based on blind faith. Perhaps it would be better to require testable hypotheses so that performance can be objectively measured. What the BC Progress Board is doing comes close to setting objective standards. It should produce two more annual reports before the next election.