March 20, 2003

Voter Intentions - Polls and More Polls

At a time when lives are about to be lost in war, it is difficult to focus on our usual routines. It is therapeutic, however, not to spend every minute consumed with the non-stop coverage of war related news. In the relatively calm world of BC politics, Ipsos-Reid has released a poll that, had it not been for the war, might have received much more news coverage.

Ipsos-Reid releases more detailed information than other polling companies. It is possible to download detailed tables from its website. In December 2002, those tables showed that amongst the women who were polled and who were decided, the BC Liberals had the support of 45%, the NDP 35% for a gap of 10 points. In March the number for women was 37% for the BC Liberals, 35% for the NDP for a gap of just 2 points. That means that come back after the drunk driving episode depended on male voters. In December Ipsos-Reid found that amongst men who were polled and who were decided, the BC Liberals had the support of 43%, 28% for the NDP for a gap of 15%. In March it was 51% of the men for the BC Liberals, 25% for the NDP for a bigger gap of 26%. The growing gender gap is probably related to much more than the episode in Maui. Campbell's performance for seniors, on health care and in education contributes to the widening gender difference.

Ipsos-Reid measures not only voter intention by party, but also approval and disapproval ratings for the leaders. In March, 48% of women said they strongly disapprove of the way Gordon Campbell has performed as Premier of BC, 34% of men strongly disapprove. Joy MacPhail received a strong disapproval rating from 20% of the men and 12% of the women. Her approval rating of 48% from men and 54% for women shows that she continues to lead her party in support.

Public opinion polls on voting intentions matter. They have an impact on the morale of political organizers, and they can influence who might consider being a potential candidates. The NDP needs new, fresh, credible candidates. Nominations are unlikely to take place for another year yet, but those who are interested need to start thinking about it and get involved now. Polling results can affect the enthusiasm that is needed for that task.

It is tempting to quote Diefenbaker when polls are bad and say they are for dogs. Another cliché dragged out when the numbers are less than encouraging is that the only poll that counts is on election day, May 17, 2005. For the reasons citied above, political activists don't really believe those clichés.

The February poll by McIntyre & Mustel put the BC Liberals at 50%, the NDP at 31% and the Greens at 10%. The numbers were so good for the Liberals that many pundits considered the poll to be "rogue", the one time out of twenty that the results are off by more than the usual error factor. The March Ipsos-Reid poll put the BC Liberals at 44%, the NDP at 30% and the Greens at 19%. The McIntyre & Mustel number for Campbell's party was a 7 point increase from their December poll. The Ipsos-Reid number was only a 3 point increase from their January number and was equal to their December poll which had the BC Liberals at 44, the NDP at 31 and the Greens at 17. From the perspective of those recent polls, the Ipsos-Reid poll for March 2003 is far less surprising than the McIntyre & Mustel results from February.

A less publicized poll conducted by Strategic Communications and fielded by CGT Consultants on behalf of the Environmental Strategies Initiative, found 38% of decided voters supporting the BC Liberals led by Gordon Campbell. The NDP followed only 5 points back at 33%. The Green and BC Unity parties trailed at 18% and 9% respectively. The Strategic Communications poll, taken between February 13 and February 17, took a random sample of 600 British Columbians, 19 years of age or older, and is considered accurate +/- 4 %, 19 times out of 20. New Democrats may be disappointed that the March Ipsos-Reid poll did not mirror the Strategic Communications poll, but it is not inconceivable that the results are the same, subject to their respective margins of error.

Over the past 9 months both major polling firms have placed the NDP in the range of 28-34%. McIntyre & Mustel consistently put the BC Liberals higher and the Greens lower than the results found by Ipsos-Reid. It would be useful if the two firms could compare notes and determine why they have that consistent difference between their polling results.

The next BC election is more than two years away. Even if the polling numbers remain stagnant over the next few months, they suggest that if an election were held today, the NDP would form the Official Opposition with more than two members. It may be that the NDP will enter the 2005 campaign simply asking for the opportunity to form a larger opposition. BC voters have over two more years to consider whether they like the style and substance of the Campbell government - drunk or sober.