The August Mustel Group poll won't go over well with some New Democrats, not because of the 19 point gap it shows between the NDP and the BC Liberals, but because of the 8 points lost by the NDP, 6 went to the BC Liberals and only 2 to the Greens. New Democrats who foolishly think that the only way to recover is to occupy the same policy turf as the Greens must once gain face the reality that most of its lost support went to the BC Liberals. Many hard core Greens will never forgive the NDP for not putting every logger in the province out of work, something that would no doubt be a concern if the Greens ever had real political influence.

The August poll put the Greens at 12%, the NDP at 28% and the BC Liberals at 47%. The Mustel Group usually shows support for the Greens to be lower than polls conducted by Ipsos-Reid which has recently put the Greens between 18% and 20%. With the exception of the June Mustel Group poll, for the past year both polling organizations have shown the BC Liberals with a very comfortable lead.

The dilemma facing the NDP, is that growth must come at the expense of another party. Being even "greener" is unlikely to win the support of hard core Greens; however, an appeal to "strategic voting" might win some of their support. The Greens are not capable of winning a seat anywhere in the province, which is one reason that they strongly support proportionate representation. It is the only way they could get their top party brass in a legislative seat.

To make substantial gains the NDP must attract people who currently support the BC Liberals. Recent Ipsos-Reid polls show that the BC Liberal support is very soft, with many voters staying with them only because they see no alternative. That means the NDP must address issues of fiscal responsibility and economic growth, issues on which it has traditionally lacked credibility. The party does not suffer the same kind of credibility gap in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Whoever emerges as leader of the NDP in November must not only act as an advocate for the tens of thousands of people who have been hurt by the Campbell government, but must also talk about the government's role in economic growth. Credibility also requires acknowledgement that all of the cuts cannot be restored without matching increases in government revenues whether from natural resources or growth in the tax base. It is essential for the new NDP leader to be able to convince the public that the party will not be held ransom by public sector unions; public sector wage increases must not be put ahead of other priorities. An NDP leader that can win the credibility and respect enjoyed by Manitoba Premier Gary Doer will be able to truly restore the BC NDP.