May 2003 poll

The May Ipsos-Reid poll shows that New Democrats don't have to worry about peaking too early. Voting intentions remained at 44% support for the Campbell Liberals and registered at 28% for the NDP and 18% for the Greens. On that basis, if an election were held today, Campbell would easily form another majority government, but an election is not going to be held today; it is scheduled for May 17, 2005.

Joy MacPhail should be encouraged by the poll. Only 18% said yes when asked if they would be more inclined to vote NDP if a new leader was chosen. That is probably better than any potential leader would receive on a similar question. More importantly, the poll showed that half of those supporting the BC Liberals did so not because of their policies and actions but because they currently believe that there is no alternative. That gives the NDP a chance to attract up to half of the government's lukewarm supporters by demonstrating that the party is rejuvenated. Many arm chair strategists presume that the NDP's growth must come purely at the expense of the Greens. It is true that some NDP support is probably parked there and will come home at the time of the vote, but the NDP can also grow at the expense of the BC Liberals. In 2001 the polls underestimated the NDP vote and over estimated both the BC Liberal and Green votes. Research with former NDP voters before the election revealed that many were planning on voting BC Liberal. An NDP with fresh, new candidates in dozens of ridings throughout the province may be able to win the support of voters by plainly speaking to issues of concern.

The May poll also showed that people understand what the Campbell government has done to BC. Most said that lower income British Columbians are worse off than they were two years ago while high income individuals and large corporations are better off. Only 14% said that middle income British Columbians are better off now than they were before the start of the New Era. While it may be disappointing for many that those opinions don't translate into an immediate loss of support for the government, the results of an earlier Ipsos-Reid poll must be remembered. Last May Ipsos-Reid found that most British Columbians were prepared to give the Campbell government a chance to prove itself even though they were disappointed. As the clock ticks towards 2005 with continuing disappointment, the patience of the voters may become exhausted.