Hopeless Greens

I find my blood pressure rising every time people who should know better argue that some sort of arrangement should be made between the Green Party and the NDP before the 2005 election. Why would anyone think that voters would behave like sheep and reward parties that cut deals behind closed doors so as to limit electoral choice? It is not as simple as adding the polling numbers for the two parties. Voters may choose to stay at home, or to vote for a third party rather than do as some political fixer dictates.

There are several substantial differences between the Greens and the NDP. The NDP recently celebrated 70 years of its history. It is still a movement as well as a party. If the public opinion polls remain as they were in early 2003, the NDP may aspire to form a government while only being capable of forming a larger opposition. Nevertheless, the NDP will grow and it should elect at least 15 or 20 MLAs in 2005. In 2002 it received over $2 million in donations, almost all of which came from over 14,000 individuals. By contrast, anyone looking at the last election results or recent filings with Elections BC would have to conclude that the only way a Green MLA could be elected is with proportional representation. In 2002 only 711 people donated to the Green Party. There is not a single riding where a Green candidate was competitive in 2001. In their two strongest ridings, Powell River Sunshine Coast and Nelson Creston, the Greens received fewer votes than the NDP.

In 2001 the NDP came within 90 votes or less of beating the BC Liberals in two Victoria ridings. A slight vote shift from Green to NDP in those ridings would have made an important difference. In the next election voters may remember the lesson that a vote for the Greens is a way to give Gordon Campbell an even bigger majority. It is true that the Green Party outpolled the NDP in several constituencies, but those are all constituencies where the BC Liberals were so strong that a vote for any other party was nothing but a protest. No one should change their approach to politics because of the results in those hopeless cases.

There is an enormous difference between aspiring to be government and hoping to someday have one seat. The NDP looks at the hopes and desires of all British Columbians. That means it must wrestle with some issues that are seen differently in different regions of the province. It must speak to resource dependent communities as well as to the need to safeguard our environment. It must speak to social justice as well as to economic development. It must behave responsibly. A party that has no hope of ever being government doesn't have that burden. What it says can be taken with a grain of salt. It can ignore entire regions, and it can act as an advocate even though it might know that what it advocates would be unworkable and undesirable for large segments of society. That is a very big difference between the Green Party and the NDP. It is a burden to be responsible, but it is better than following a political party whose greatest hope is to change the voting system so it can elect one person.

If the Citizens' Assembly produces a recommendation, there may be a referendum concurrent with the 2005 election. The Greens are clearly hoping that the Citizens' Assembly will recommend a form of proportional representation that will allow them to elect at least one member. When considering proportionate representation, as is frequently the case, the devil is in the details. PR would create two classes of MLAs. Constituency MLAs would be bound to work for and serve their local constituents. They would be the people who would handle the grievances over welfare, WCB, and dozens of other personal complaints. Party list MLAs would be accountable to the party and would have no other obvious constituency. British Columbians who supported recall and would like to make it easier would find that half of the MLAs, the party list people, would be immune from any form of recall. Meanwhile, constituency MLAs would have to serve twice as many constituents since there would be half as many constituency MLAs as there are now. For the Interior that would probably mean dramatically reduced representation in the Legislature.

It could be that the Citizens' Assembly will look at the practical disadvantages of PR and conclude that the current system is not so bad after all. Green supporters might find that they are far better off joining the NDP and participating in the nomination process. The new face of a rejuvenated NDP will be determined by the candidates who represent the NDP in the 2005 election. Who wins the nomination contests in the 20 or 30 most winnable ridings for the NDP will determine the essence of the rejuvenated party. It takes signing a party membership card months before the nomination dates in order to participate in that process. People who are serious about influencing political change are signing those cards.