Apologists for the Campbell government have adopted a style of ignoring the present and focusing on the future. "Move forward", the Premier's favorite expression, seems to be shorthand for asking that the blunders of yesterday and today be ignored while people hold on to hope. The difficulty with this approach is that plans are constantly revised so year three in any plan is always two years away.

On October 30, 2003, the BMO Financial Group released its updated regional economic forecast. It put BC dead last with only 1.2% real GDP growth in 2003, but it held out hope by forecasting that growth would increase to 3.4% in 2005; ranking the provinces that puts BC last in 2003 but tied for third highest in 2005. The BMO showed that it is no Campbell apologist when it added "The provincial government's commitment to eliminate its deficit by the 2004-05 fiscal year will require additional, substantial cuts in expenditures and public service employment. Fiscal austerity is a central factor in keeping the BC economy below the national average for the eighth consecutive year in 2004."

The Vancouver Province spun the news about the BMO forecast with a comment about economic recovery coming just in time for the next election. Election aside, all those in the BC economic lifeboat can hope that the "good news is coming tomorrow" message finally rings true. The experience in the beginning of the New Era suggests that the improved forecast will be revised and endlessly pushed to the future.

Finance Minister Gary Collins presented his "economic and fiscal update" on July 30, 2001. That "mini-budget" added a further $790 million in corporate tax breaks to the $1.5 billion that was announced June 5th. He predicted economic growth of 2.2% for 2001 rising to 3.8% in 2002 - "up sharply from the 2.9 per cent" predicted for 2002 in the last NDP budget, with the sharp increase attributed to the tax cuts. In 2003 we can look back and see that unfortunately for Collins and for BC, he was wrong. Economic growth in 2001 was negative (-0.2%) and it sputtered badly in 2002 at half the rate forecasted (1.8%). If the BMO Financial Group's forecast of 1.2% for 2003 is correct, growth will dip again from what was seen as bad performance in 2002.

When Collin's produced his First Quarter Financial report in September 2003 he lowered his growth forecast for this year to 1.5% (previously 2.4%), but still higher than the BMO forecast; at the same time he forecast 2.4% for 2004, 2.6% for 2005 and 3% thereafter. The BMO forecast is more optimistic than Collins for both 2004 and 2005. There will be many more revisions to those forecasts before the actual numbers are available.

For 2002 Statistics Canada did not produce the provincial GDP figures until April 28, 2003. The numbers for 2001 were originally published April 22, 2002, but they were substantially revised November 7, 2002. Provincial GDP figures for 2000 weren't published until October 31, 2001. When British Columbians go to vote on May 17, 2005, there will be differing claims about how the economy performed after December 2003, but it is unlikely that any numbers will be available from Statistics Canada to verify who is right. (The preliminary 2004 GDP number may come out a week before the election.)

The problem of access to timely data also applies to whether the provincial budget is balanced or not. The Audited Financial statements as attested to by the Auditor General for fiscal year 2004-05 will not be available until after the election. You can expect that on February 17, 2004, when the budget is tabled in the legislature, the Campbell government will claim that it is balanced, and it will repeat that claim again on February 15, 2005, when it reports on the third quarter results for 2004-05 and tables the 2005-06 budget. Meanwhile, proof (or refutation) of those claims will not be available until at least two months after the election.

As is frequently the case, some people will not let the facts get in the way of their beliefs, but for those who question what government claims, it is useful to see how often they are correct with their forecasts. So far the record in the New Era is one of being consistently wrong, and worse than expected. That also applies to the budget although government usually issues news releases claiming that they have outperformed forecasts. When one looks at the figure forecast in the budget for personal income tax revenue, it has consistently come it substantially lower than predicted, thereby showing that the tax cuts are not paying for themselves.

Those who care about the facts need to check forecasts against subsequent outcomes.