October
20, 2003
Cheating
on the Employment Numbers
Repeating
falsehoods doesn't make them true, but it might make them
believed if they are quoted often enough. However divisive
BC politics might be, all parties should be able to agree
on the basic statistics. The Campbell Liberals are constantly
claiming that either the government or the economy has created
around 100,000 jobs since they came to power. The only semi-credible
way anyone can get numbers like that is if you think the Campbell
government came to power in December, 2001. How can they forget
that the election was on May 16, 2001? Of course, you can
also get the 100,000 number by looking at the difference in
the seasonally unadjusted data between January and September,
2003, but that is not a useful comparison unless it is for
the purpose of misleading (see the graph below).
Statistics
Canada's Labour Force Survey reports the following data:
|
|
| Month/Year |
Seasonally
Adjusted
|
Unadjusted
|
| May
2001 |
1.9698
|
1.9864
|
| Dec
2001 |
1.9169
|
1.8996
|
| Sept
2003 |
2.0180
|
2.0371
|
On a seasonally
adjusted basis, BC had 48,200 more jobs in September, 2003,
than it had in May, 2001; on an unadjusted basis the increase
was 50,700. On a seasonally adjusted basis, BC lost 52,900
jobs between May and December, 2001, hence the Campbell government
is prone to measuring job growth relative to December so as
to add those jobs back in its total. It's great that the jobs
came back, but the government cannot ignore the first seven
months of its mandate - that's when they made some of their
worst decisions.
The graph
shown below illustrates both the seasonally adjusted and unadjusted
employment data from May, 2001, through September, 2003. The
vertical scale shows thousands of jobs. The red lines show
the 52,900 difference one gets depending on whether the starting
point is May or December.

Apologists
for the government may simply say that it doesn't matter since
employment has grown rapidly since December, 2001, but they
would be wrong. Employment recovered rapidly immediately after
December, 2001, but it has leveled off since August, 2002.
In the 8 months after December, 2001, employment grew 4.4%,
but in the 13 months between August, 2002, and September,
2003, employment grew only 0.8% (compared to an average
annual rate of 2.1% during the NDP Era).
Since
the brutal welfare policies of the Campbell government are
spun to the public with rhetoric about the availability of
jobs, it is important that everyone know the truth about employment
in BC. A job is better than a welfare cheque, but there are
over 200,000 unemployed who are attempting to win those jobs
ahead of the people who are pushed off welfare because they
have needed help for two years. Murry Coell and his friends
should come to grips with that reality, and they should show
their list of 10,000 available jobs to all British Columbians.
If you go to the websites
for Coell's job placement contractors, you will find that
they won't reveal their list of jobs unless you are in a certain
category of income assistance. What are they hiding from the
200,000 people who want work? If the list of 10,000 available
jobs is real, let everyone see it. How many jobs are available
that match the skills of people who have been on welfare for
two years, and which employers prefer those candidates to
the other job applicants who are available?
|