Premier Gordon Campbell and a third of his cabinet of 28 are going to Alberta on October 8th for a joint cabinet session with Premier Ralph Klein. The expensive photo op will accomplish nothing, and it will draw attention to the fact that if they never came back, the 21 ministers who stayed home would still make a very large cabinet. That must be very depressing for the government backbench.

No politician wants to be a government backbencher - I know because I was there. When the fall legislative session ends on November 27th, BC will be only 18 months away from the next election. From the viewpoint of government backbenchers that means time is running out for their chance at the gold ring. A couple of dozen of those MLAs will be expendable in the next election as voters realize that a larger opposition makes for better government. It has got to be frustrating for people like Dave Hayer or Ralph Sultan to look at the dismal performance of Ministers of State like Sindi Hawkins or Katherine Whittred and accept their lower status.

It would be an extraordinary stroke of luck if out of 77 government MLAs the Premier just happened to pick exactly the correct cabinet on day one. Most governments would have a mid-term cabinet shuffle. Whether it was his loss of credibility over his Maui misadventure, or whether it is just plain dithering, Campbell looks like he doesn't have what it takes to shuffle his cabinet. Cabinet shuffles cause big problems. Every backbencher believes that he or she is better than the Ministers on the front bench. When a shuffle is made, those who don't grab the golden ring are bitter; those who are dumped from cabinet are even more bitter. Delaying the shuffle doesn't solve the problem as backbenchers start to grumble that the Premier lacks the backbone it takes to make the difficult decisions and promote them to their proper glory.

The BC Legislature resumes sitting on October 6th - two days before the junket to Alberta. Having stalled on the cabinet shuffle, the Premier is not likely to do it while the legislature is sitting. That gives him only a couple of weeks before the Christmas holidays. If he doesn't shuffle his cabinet until 2004, there will be a lot of angry backbenchers who will take pleasure over the year end reviews that will undoubtedly mention Campbell's time in a US jail.

According to the last Ipsos-Reid poll, the BC Liberals would easily win another majority government if an election were held today, but Premier Campbell does not enjoy the popularity of his party. The BC Liberals poll at 47%, but the Premier has a disapproval rating of 61%. Indecisiveness over a cabinet shuffle and the inevitable internal squabbling that will follow will not help Campbell's approval ratings.

So called "major media" outlets would normally be speculating on the reasons why Campbell has failed to shuffle his cabinet. Their silence on the matter is testimony to the effectiveness of government's Public Affairs Bureau in controlling media spin. Many journalists are asking when the cabinet shuffle will happen, but government's media flacks have been able to stall with answers like the need to maintain continuity for the fall sitting of the Legislature. Excuses will soon run out, and all credible media will have to focus on why Campbell isn't able to make the decision.

Premier Campbell should take a lesson from elections in the east. His beloved champions in Ontario were wiped from the political map in Thursday's election. Prince Edward Island seems to be the sole island of stability at a time when voters think it is time for a change. Few think that Campbell could repeat the mistakes he made in the 1996 election, but his failure to act decisively and shuffle his cabinet could cost him as many as a dozen extra lost seats in 2005. MLAs who are looking at their future will be reluctant to run again if they see no hope of being appointed to cabinet. Minister of Competition, Science and Enterprise, Rick Thorpe, has already been caught in a contradiction when he told his local newspaper that he wouldn't run again, and then backtracked when he realized that might foreclose his options. It is a safe bet that others are telling Campbell that they won't run again unless he can offer them something more satisfying than their current positions.

In the first 870 days of the Campbell government, only a handful of Ministers have achieved name recognition. Health Minister Collin Hansen, Attorney General Geoff Plant, and Solicitor General Rich Coleman are the stars in the Campbell cabinet. The rest are unknown or, worse yet, are known for their dismal performance. No one thinks less of the underachievers than the backbenchers who know they can do better. That is Campbell's problem and the reason he has been paralyzed with indecision over the needed cabinet shuffle.