BC's Economic Growth

The New Era isn't getting the economic lift its boosters promised.

Just as it always does on the first Friday of the month, last week Statistics Canada released the Labour Force Survey for the previous month. Usually that results in at least a few seconds of coverage on the electronic media, and a few paragraphs on the business pages of the print media. The Labour Force Survey for May showed employment down in BC for the second month in a row, and the unemployment rate up a half point to 8.6%. As far as I can tell this news was not reported in the electronic media, and I could not find it in the Vancouver Sun the day after its release. Sunday's Vancouver Province did have a few columns on page A44 where it mentioned that a loss of part time jobs more than offset a gain in full time employment. It could be that the government's spin about the New Era is aided by the failure to report bad economic news. It is certainly the case that the government cherry picks economic indicators on a special section of its website titled "positive economic indicators" (which could be subtitled slim pickings).

At noon on Sunday June 8th CKNW reported that "The president of the Retail Merchant Association of Canada says B.C.'s retail sector is growing, despite problems with the province's resource-based economy. " The story alleged that "Retail sales are up 4 percent for the first quarter of the year, driven by auto and electronics sales and home renovations." Unfortunately, the numbers released by Statistics Canada do not balance with the positive spin put out by the Merchant's Association. The most recent statistics released by Statistics Canada for retail trade are for the month of March. They show retail trade in BC up by 2.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis relative to March 2002. If one compares the first quarter, January through March 2003, with the first quarter of 2002, the increase is a healthier 3.9%. That at least keeps up with population growth and inflation but it pales compared to the 6% or better growth rate that was experienced from early 2000 through late 2002. A page titled "key economic indicators" in Finance Minister Gary Collins' current budget shows that he assumed a growth rate for retail sales of 4.8% for 2003 and 5.3% for 2004. If the 3.9% or worse performance for the first quarter of 2003 continues, we could find more bad news when government releases its first quarter report in late September. No amount of ignoring bad news, or cheer leading by supporters, will change the revenue impact of higher unemployment and slower growth in retail sales.