January 16, 2003

Political Decay and Renewal

What is about to unfold in the BC Liberal caucus can be soul destroying. It is a phenomenon that should be studied by sociologists. It has nothing to do with political stripe, and everything to do with how a group behaves when its leader is fatally wounded.

The Premier still holds the power to determine who is and who is not in cabinet. He determines which constituencies get favors and which get ignored. It takes a very courageous MLA to stand up in caucus and tell the Premier that he should resign. Most will not do that. In the early stages many will view criticism of the Premier as attacks on the group and pull together to fight the critics.

Eventually some MLAs will have chats in small groups and discover that a growing number feel that the leader would be a liability in the next election. Some will start to position themselves to run for the leadership. The bolder ones will play to the media so as to position themselves for a run at the leadership or to help grease the skids for the exit of the leader. By early 2004, the internal maneuverings will start to threaten the ability of the group to function. Cliques, rivalries and power struggles will interfere with decision making and erupt into public disputes that cause even more internal problems. Meanwhile the power of the Premier's office will erode. Recognition that he is unlikely to be able to remain will result in slower responses to "requests" from his office. His ability to resolve internal disputes will disappear as he is considered to be part of the problem rather than the ultimate dispenser of power.

The federal Liberals are going through internal decay. Social Credit experienced it under Bill VanderZalm. The NDP experienced it under Glen Clark. There is nothing that Gordon Campbell can do to prevent it from happening to his government.

The result of political decay can be renewal. A new leader can emerge and animosities can be put aside. Just because the Liberals go through the pain of exorcizing a wounded leader doesn't mean that they won't be a shoe-in for the next election. The "core vote" for the anti-NDP coalition is much larger than the reliable NDP vote. The NDP is still struggling to recover from a case of this type of political decay that was so bad that renewal requires a substantial infusion of new blood to replace people who cannot work together. No one will be able to tell whether the NDP has solved its problems and become competitive until after a substantial number of nomination contests are held sometime in 2004. How the Liberals handle the disease that has affected their political body will determine whether they can remain a shoe-in for 2005. The longer they take to recognize the need for change and agree to an orderly process, the more likely it is that change will be so disruptive as to spill over into the election campaign. The next two years will be a fascinating time for political pundits, and a potentially soul destroying time for political combatants. The real combatants are not those on opposite sides of the legislature, but those who face each other within their caucus room.