December 19, 2002

2002 in Review

Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals lost one third of their support in 2002. According to the McIntyre & Mustel poll, they finished 2002 with 43% of BC voters on their side; the Green Party stalled; support for the NDP increased by 50% to 33% voter support. Political observers will be watching to see if the 10 point gap narrows in 2003.

The Campbell government went into January 2002 with a vengeance. January 17th became known as Black Thursday when government announced that one third of the public service would be eliminated over three years. At the end of the month three controversial labour Bills were rammed through the Legislature during a weekend sitting. In spite of their majority of 77 to 2, Campbell resorted to calling the Legislature on Saturday and Sunday to break contracts with teachers and health workers.

January was capped off with a provincial budget on February 18th. The budget contained the following chart which purported to show how the Campbell government would balance its budget by fiscal year 2004-05. Of course, public accounts, complete with an opinion from the Auditor General, will not be out until after the May 17, 2005 election, but the Third Quarter Report that will form part of the February 2005 budget will give a pretty good indication of whether the budget will balance.

The chart shown above formed part of the February 2002 budget and emphasized the following key assumptions:

By November 2002 when the Second Quarter Financial report was presented, the likelihood of 5.1 percent revenue growth for the next two years appeared slim. The upcoming $1.4 billion in spending cuts combined with program freezes will make the mean spirited start to 2002 look positively cheerful. The tough stuff is yet to come!

A disproportionate share of the cuts are on the backs of people on welfare. $435 million is to be cut from human resources in 2003/04 and 2004/05 (7% of the budget is planned to take 31% of the cuts). In 2002 government required 19,000 people on disability benefits to go through an intensive review. It finally relented and excused 5,000 people who suffer from mental illness, but only after reports of tragedies.

What many people consider to be the Campbell government's war on seniors shifted into high gear when, at a staged cabinet meeting on April 22nd, Minister Whittred announced government's "Community Care Strategy". Various ministers gave conflicting numbers on how many beds would be built; it soon became clear that new beds were being financed by kicking seniors out of existing residential care facilities.

Government finished the year without providing any details on its promise to change Pharmacare to an income tested program. Anxiety is rampant, because starting early in 2003 as much as $200 million per year in costs will be shifted onto seniors.

Government finished the year with a silly claim by the Premier, in a letter to the New York Times, that claimed BC has more old growth now than it had 100 years ago.

Wild salmon stocks were put at risk when the Campbell government announced the expansion of fish farms. Sea lice are the most likely cause of the near total loss of the pink salmon run in the Broughton Archipelago. Instead of acting on recommendations to fallow fish farms in the Archipelago, the Campbell government has called a meeting for January 2003 to discuss why the run vanished.

From April 2 through May 15, 2002, a postal ballot was used in what many considered to be an unnecessary referendum on treaty negotiations. Election BC spent over $3 million in the experiment; 763,480 people voted. Six months later, at the November 22nd staged cabinet meeting, Attorney General Geoff Plant announced a new approach to treaty negotiations that focuses on certainty rather than on extinguishment of rights. The new approach appears to have left the disruption caused by the referendum as an unpleasant memory; however, issuance of a project approval certificate to Redfern Resources for a mine near Atlin led some native leaders to speak of the need to return to the courts.

Softwood negotiations dominated BC's main industry throughout 2002. BC's Minister of Forests predicted that the negotiations would reach a successful conclusion before Christmas of 2001. Recently, Minister de Jong has had little to say about prospects for reaching an end to the trade dispute.

Privatization of BC Rail is one of the reasons often given for the BC Liberal's loss in 1996. In February BC Rail discontinued the Trailer-on-Flat-Car (ToFC) segment of its Intermodal service. Passenger service was terminated. BCR Marine, which includes Casco Terminals, Vancouver Wharves and Canadian Stevedoring, was put up for sale. Many worry that eventually BC Rail may ultimately only own some road beds.

As the year drew to a close, announcements were made to break BC Hydro into two separate companies so private power companies could deal directly with an independent transmission company. It was also announced that BC Ferries would be reorganized with an operating company incorporated like any private company. Government has yet to explain how it intends to convince the Auditor General why debt for the newly structured ferry operation should be kept off the government's books. The public knows that the new operation will be more expensive due to higher interest charges and application of the hated GST.

In December the government's hand picked Progress Board, consisting of business leaders, issued its second report and showed that on numerous measurements BC's performance was weak to middling. When asked in a year end interview with the CBC what his government's major accomplishment was in 2002, Premier Campbell said "we created over 80,000 jobs in 2002". Campbell must have meant the "royal we" since he would be the first to deny that government creates jobs. More importantly, the gain in early 2002 only offset loses in the second half of 2001. The seasonally unadjusted numbers show that employment in BC was the same in November 2002 as it was in May 2001. The trend in employment has been down since August. The December numbers won't be available until January 10th, but on the basis of what is available it looks like there has been no economic progress since the Campbell government came to power.

The economy didn't perform, and everything other than the economy fared far worse. A brief review cannot begin to address all of the cuts that occurred in 2002. Legal aid, Open Learning Agency, employment standards, child care, the children's advocate, the human rights commission, class sizes, and college and university tuition hikes are only a few of the stories from 2002. It is a wonder that Paul Nettleton is the only MLA to leave the Campbell caucus. What is wrong with the rest of them?

How do you like your tax cuts so far?