The negative news is painful for those who are suffering from cuts, or in New Speak, "changes". The excuse for all the turmoil is "it is necessary in order to achieve sustainable provincial finances and economic growth." That may be small comfort for those who care about the frail elderly.

The introduction to the Campbell government's strategic plan says "The foundation of this plan is based on three overriding goals: economic growth, supportive social infrastructure and healthy communities and environment. Renewing our economy is unquestionably this government's top priority." (emphasis added)

The Bank of Canada has reported that the Canadian economy has returned to such rapid growth that it will gradually increase interest rates. Statistics Canada has reported that leading economic indicators increased more in March than at any time in the past 15 years. With these favorable conditions it is fair to look at how the New Era gang is doing in BC. When will those tax cuts finally pay for themselves?

The Campbell government is one quarter of the way through its term. The first year has been very rough. Recall the optimistic statements by rookie Finance Minister Gary Collins in his July 2001 mini-budget speech:

Premier Campbell and his cabinet were sworn into office on June 5, 2001. On June 6 he made tax cuts retroactive to January 1, 2001. Their initial rhetoric led people to believe that the economic miracle would be instantaneous. Before the failure of the softwood deal or 9-11, BC's economy showed that it was not responding to the Campbell stimulus. By the time of his first quarterly financial report in September 2001, Collins had to acknowledge that he was more than a half billion off target!

By the time of his February 2002 budget, Collins was talking about growth that had dropped to 1.0% or less and rather than having tax cuts pay for themselves, they were being paid for with a higher sales tax, a 50% increase in MSP "premiums" and massive cuts to government services.

On April 22, 2002, Statistics Canada reported on the provincial gross domestic product numbers for calendar year 2001, and for BC it said:

What are the targets against which the Campbell government should be held to account? Of course voters set their own and they may be different than those set by government, but we can ask what are reasonable measures by their standards? Statistics Canada reported that in June 2001 employment in BC stood at 1,984,800 (seasonally unadjusted). We will have to wait until July 5, 2002, before Statistics Canada reports on employment for June 2002, but it looks like BC will have lost jobs over the first year of the Campbell government. If tax cuts create jobs, then government should say what they expect the level of employment to be by November 17, 2005. The most recently available numbers are for March. They show BC lost 27,000 jobs between 2001 and 2002.

According to the audited provincial financial statements for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2001, BC had total revenue of $27.839 billion (summary accounts) and personal income tax revenue of $6.015 billion (pdf). That is the pre-tax cut benchmark. If tax cuts are going to pay for themselves, we should eventually see government revenue return to those levels and not through the increase in other taxes and fees. The February 2002 budget forecast personal income tax revenue of $4.854 billion or $1.161 billion less than the previous year - a further 24% growth is necessary before anyone could begin to claim that the tax cuts have paid for themselves.

On May 17, 2005, voters may be more interested in whether their mother or father was denied health care. "Assisted living" may be provided when 24 hr 7 day a week care is what is necessary. Would anyone be surprised if Premier Campbell denies that has anything to do with tax cuts not paying for themselves?