November 18, 2002

Nettleton - naïve or shrewd?

Gordon Campbell will likely begin the week with a hangover from the Larry Campbell victory party - not bad for not even being there. Things looked good for Mayor-elect Campbell before Saturday's election but no one predicted a COPE landslide.

In two or three weeks Ipsos-Reid will be measuring public support for the BC Liberals. Recent events suggest they might fall into the 30s. Breaking that psychological barrier would be bad news for the Premier and as much a boost for the NDP as Saturday's sweep by COPE.

Falling popularity and COPE's sweep provide the backdrop for one of the BC Liberal's most important caucus meetings. That meeting may say far more about the BC Liberal's than it could ever say about Paul Nettleton.

Is Paul Nettleton naïve or shrewd? Lawyers can be called many things, but it would be unusual to hear anyone characterize one as naïve. Nettleton hopes that his bold move will encourage other government backbenchers to follow in his footsteps. It must be tempting for backbenchers; it would only take four to cross the floor to change political history by instantly becoming the Official Opposition. They would be transformed from nobodies to leaders who would be in the news regularly as they hold government accountable. No longer representing government, they could be seen as being advocates for their constituents.

Will constituents of backbenchers think their MLAs are useless wimps if they don't speak out on important issues in their ridings? Will the "openness" promised by Gordon Campbell finally become necessary because government can no longer trust who will tell the truth about what happens behind closed doors? If Nettleton remains in caucus, will he and others get the truth out more often? With Nettleton in caucus, mavericks have a role model; with Nettleton out of caucus, mavericks may have the beginnings of a new party.

Whether he stays in caucus or is kicked out, it looks like Nettleton will have had more influence than he ever would have had by warming a seat and applauding the government. If he can handle a media scrum on Monday and get his message out, he'll never again be called naïve.