October 2, 2002

Recall in 2005

Some activists have discovered that it is easier to put up a website or do a media interview than it is to organize a recall petition. The turnout of less than 40 people for those attempting to organize recall in Vancouver may simply indicate that most activists are realistic. Recall is difficult. Recall should be difficult. Notwithstanding Kevin Falcon's "Total Recall" campaign prior to the last election, it is not intended for mischief. It is intended to be used in exceptional circumstances when an MLA displays unacceptable behaviour.

Supporting the Campbell government may be unacceptable when voters go to the polls in 2005, but it is hard to maintain that BC Liberal MLAs are in anyway deceiving their constituents by supporting Campbell. There may be a handful of exceptions. The folks at RecallBray.com point out that Bray promised during the election campaign that there would not be huge cutbacks. Unlike most of the promises in the New Era document which appear to be carefully crafted so as to allow multiple interpretations, Bray's clear statement may allow some of those who voted for him to feel that they were misled.

Eighteen months or more after the last election a recall petitioner can apply to Elections BC for official recall petitions. Technically that means a campaign could begin in November but that would result in signature gathering overlapping with Christmas. Sensible campaigns will wait until at least January. Recall legislation gives canvassers 60 days to gather signatures from 40% of people who were on the voters list at the time of the last election and are still on the voters list for the constituency where the recall is occurring. The reason for that requirement is the notion that recall is reconsideration. In order to reconsider one would have had to be eligible to vote for the MLA in the first place.

Bray's constituency, Victoria Beacon Hill, had 36,775 registered voters in 2001; 25,238 people voted; 15,941 of those who voted did not vote for Bray. A successful recall will require 14,710 eligible signatures. It is likely that many people moved over the past 18 months, hence a successful campaign depends on getting signatures from some of the people who were eligible but didn't vote in 2001 and from some of the people who voted for Bray. Keep in mind that this is the easy case! Opinion polls show that the BC Liberals continue to enjoy a comfortable margin of support outside of Vancouver Island.

The stark reality of the difficulty of recall should assist in understanding statements from those who claim that all of BC will be subject to recall campaigns. Those claims should be heard as a cry of protest but they should not be taken seriously. People who have enough time to go door to door collecting signatures could better spend their time by joining and becoming active in their local NDP constituency association.

If Gordon Campbell is going to face a serious challenge in 2005, the NDP must field new credible candidates backed by a party with thousands of new members. If activists choose to support parties that have never held a seat in the legislature or to spend their time on hopeless recall campaigns, Gordon Campbell will continue his cuts knowing that he will face no credible challenge at the ballot box. Activists who think ahead will work for a successful recall on May 17, 2005.

Recall Sites

recallbray.com

recallbc.com