September 24, 2002

September Poll Encourages Recall

On election night almost 500 days ago, few would have believed that the NDP could rebound so quickly to almost 30% in the polls. The September 2002 Ipsos-Reid poll puts the NDP at 28% and the BC Liberals at 43%. One of the most challenging questions in BC politics is to understand why 19% say the Green Party is their preference.

In May 2001, just before the election, Ipsos-Reid's poll showed 63% support for the BC Liberals, 16% support for the NDP and 13% support for the Greens. On election day the actual numbers turned out to be 57.6% BC Liberal, 21.6% NDP and 12.4% Green.

Since the election little has been heard from the Greens except for what some call the campaign to elect Adriane Carr. It appears that the Campbell government will soon appoint the promised "Citizens' Assembly" to review BC's electoral system. It will be interesting to see what the Assembly thinks of the peculiar form of proportionate representation advocated by Carr.

Over the next 900 days Carr might not be able to hold 19% of the vote without indicating a position on issues like fish farming, changes to Pharmacare, BC Hydro, Kyoto, softwood, municipal offloading, larger class sizes and welfare "reform". On the other hand, providing more than a 15 second one-liner on any of those issues might make it hard to hold votes that are parked in the "none of the above" category. With almost one in five voters indicating a preference for the Greens, Carr will come under increasing pressure to indicate her party's positions on a wide range of issues.

In May 2001 Ipsos-Reid measured support for the Greens on Vancouver Island at 19% compared to only 18% for the NDP. In September 2002 Ipsos-Reid found support on the Island had increased to 26% for the Greens and to a stunning 39% for the NDP. The BC Liberals came in with only 25%. Recall campaigns can officially begin in November. Numbers like that might cause Jeff Bray and Sheila Orr to dust off their resumes. The folks at RecallBray.com are actively engaged in "pre-call work" - identifying voters who are upset with Bray and signing up volunteers. They plan on another door to door effort between October 17th and October 24th. Watch their website for details.

A successful recall in Victoria would do nothing to threaten Premier Campbell's hold on power. Even if he lost the seat in a by-election, the legislative balance would only shift to 76-3. A recall might cause Campbell to slow down on his cuts planned for the year ahead. Who would win that third seat might be monumental for the future of the opposition. The NDP would be challenged to come up with a fresh, credible candidate rather than recycling an old rerun. The Greens would have the opportunity for Adriane Carr to run for a seat rather than to try to pick up a seat through a party list where no voter can influence whose on the top of that list (a feature peculiar to New Zealand's and Carr's preferred version of proportionate representation). From the viewpoint of political pundits, a Victoria by-election early in 2003 could be more fun than a traveling circus.

In the Lower Mainland the BC Liberals appear to be much stronger with 49% support according to the September 2002 Ipsos-Reid poll. However, in May 2001 Ipsos-Reid measured support of 69% for the BC Liberals in the suburbs and 59% in Vancouver-Burnaby. The drop in Liberal support can also be found in other strongholds. Amongst those with over $60,000 income, Liberal support measured 66% in May 2001 but "only" 51% in the latest poll. There's nothing wrong with 51% until you realize that it is a loss of almost one in four supporters since the May election. If that rate of decline continues for another 900 days, even a split opposition may not be enough to protect a government that has surprised many with its uncaring, arrogant, thoughtless approach to people.