December 18, 2002

Limits to Growth

Last year BC's Minister of Forests predicted that the softwood dispute would be over by Christmas - December 25, 2001. Little or no progress has been made by the Campbell government on its ambitious hopes for rejuvenating the forest industry. The new results based forest practices code awaits the release of practical regulations; the only other changes are cutbacks in BC's Forest Service.

It is hard for families in many British Columbia resource dependent communities, including Vancouver, to accept that recovery of the forest industry is not going to provide a silver bullet for the BC economy. It is time for politicians of all political stripes to be realistic about job prospects in forestry.

As shown in the following graph, approximately 10,000 BC jobs have been lost in all aspects of forestry since the softwood dispute began. Those are direct forestry jobs in logging, wood manufacturing, and pulp and paper as measured by Statistics Canada's survey of employment, earnings and hours. Undoubtedly there is some multiple of that in terms of the aggregate impact on the BC economy. If the multiple were three indirect for every direct forestry job, then the total loss would be in excess of 40,000 jobs.

Unless BC diversifies into more labour intensive, value added manufacturing for its forestry products, the approximate ratio of 1 job per 1,000 cubic meters of harvested wood means that the potential for job growth is limited by the size of the harvest. The largest harvest in BC history was in 1987 when 20 million cubic meters more was harvested than is expected for the foreseeable future. Even if that record high harvest was sustainable, the maximum impact is not likely to exceed 20,000 additional direct jobs.

No one should dismiss the importance of between 10,000 and 30,000 potential additional direct forestry jobs, but it is unliekly that there will be further growth for decades. For the sake of thousands of families in BC's resource dependent communities, efforts should be made to realize every possible sustainable job, but it will not help any family or any community to provide misleading hopes about the industry's future.

BC will always have a forest industry but as the graph shows, it is unlikely to have an industry that provides 100,000 direct jobs. Those that talk about the BC economy recovering when the softwood dispute ends need to recognize that the industry has limits to growth. The provincial government should play an active role in helping communities adjust to change, and in encouraging economic diversification. It takes more than cutting taxes and stepping back to see what happens. Just as the title "Ministry of the Environment" disappeared in the New Era, so too did economic titles like the "Ministry of Employment and Investment" and "Ministry of Small Business, Tourism and Culture". BC needs an activist government that will do more than cut, cut, cut.

Also see: "Ready for Change - Crisis and Opportunity in the Coast Forest Industry", Peter Pearce, November 2001

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December 13, 2002

More Old Growth?

"There is more old-growth forest in British Columbia now than 100 years ago, amounting to 62 million acres. That total is projected to increase in the century ahead"
      GORDON CAMPBELL
      Premier
      Vancouver, British Columbia
      Dec. 6, 2002

(From a letter published in the New York Times on December 11, 2002;
Click here for the related article on the spotted owl that prompted the Premier to write such an incredible line.)

According to the Ministry of Forests:

"Old growth forests provide important habitats for a number of species. They are characterized by attributes such as:

• Large diameter live and dead trees that are standing, and provide important habitat for birds, small animals and bears.
• Dead and decaying trees that are lying on the ground, and provide habitat and food for small animals.
• A variety of tree ages, sizes and species.

Some forests start to develop these attributes as early as 100 years in age, while others take up to 250 years to start developing "old growth attributes."

Considering that definition, it is hard to understand Campbell's claim that BC has more old growth after 100 years of harvesting. Responding to criticism, he said lightning and early human inhabitants used to burn 1.2 million acres annually, while today, fires, logging and insects only affect 640,000 acres a year. That reference comes from a Ministry of Forests document originally dated January 2001, and subsequently updated for posting on the Ministry's website. The 2001 version said "It's estimated that eight million acres of old growth forest are now fully protected - that's 13% of B.C.'s old growth." The version currently on the Ministry's website says "Almost four million hectares (10 million acres) are now fully protected-that's 15 per cent of B.C.'s old growth. More old growth will be protected as stakeholder-based land use planning processes recommend new parks in coastal rainforests and other areas." On the basis of that document, Campbell claims that he just repeated the NDP position, but it is not at all clear that his government will protect additional old growth.

It is always amusing when Premier Campbell has to hide behind the former government, but when he does that he shouldn't add his own interpretation. The Ministry document does not say that BC has more old growth than it did 100 years ago. It says that because of modern fire fighting techniques "… BC has more old growth today than in the past, with the amount of old growth projected to increase in the century ahead." Whether that happens in another 100 years depends on what the Campbell government does today and in the near future. The Minister of Sustainable Resource Management is currently looking at reducing the size of protected areas.

"In the past" does not refer to 100 years ago, it refers to what has happened since the introduction of modern fire fighting and other measures to protect the forests. Harvesting in BC's forests peaked in 1987 when 90.591 million cubic meters were cut. In 1988-89, 270,401 hectares were harvested; in 1997-98 that was down to 173,801 hectares and areas were protected under the Harcourt government. Rather than saying "BC has more old growth than it did 100 years ago", Campbell should have said that BC has made progress in the last ten years. It does not help BC's Forest Industry to have a Premier who might appear foolish in the eyes of readers of the New York Times.

The issue originally raised in a New York Times article that said:

Protecting the spotted owl's habitat touches on a very sensitive issue in resource dependent communities. In order to protect markets, government needs to assure the world that it is protecting the environment. In order to protect jobs, government needs to protect markets as well as to maximize the sustainable annual allowable cut.