May 20, 2002

May Polls

A poll is just a snapshot in time, and not necessarily an accurate one at that. Nevertheless, political hacks seize on every subtly as they interpret the polls.

Ipsos-Reid, McIntyre & Mustel, and Marktrend are the most often quoted pollsters in BC. Of those, Ipsos-Reid stands light years ahead with its standards of transparency and full public disclosure. Anyone can download the full detailed tables that reveal their questions and results (pdf).

The table below makes use of the detailed Ipsos-Reid results from their late election poll (May 2001) and their recent poll (May 2002). No matter which demographic is examined, gender, income, union status or age, the BC Liberals are falling. Of course, if an election were held today they would still win, but an election is not going to be held for three years. If the Campbell government stays the course with more cuts (as currently scheduled) combined with the dismantling of ICBC, BC Hydro and other crown corporations, future polls may look even worse for the party with the largest majority in BC history.

Traditionally the NDP did better amongst women, in union households and in middle and lower income households. In last year's election, the BC Liberals had a substantial lead in all categories. The table below shows traditional gaps returning. Party preferences among women are 38% BC Liberal, 32% NDP and 23% Green. Amongst 18-34 year olds, preferences are 34% BC Liberal, 29% NDP and 28% Green. For all demographic groups except union households, the BC Liberals continue to lead but it is becoming a real horse race with three years to go.

Comparison of Ipsos-Reid Polls May 2001 vs. May 2002
	BC Liberal	NDP	Green
Actual election results:	58%	22%	12%
Poll all decided voters
2001	63%	16%	13%
2002	45%	27%	20%
Men
2001	62%	16%	13%
2002	52%	23%	17%
Women
2001	64%	16%	13%
2002	38%	32%	23%
Age 55 and over
2001	69%	17%	10%
2002	58%	25%	10%
Age 35-54
2001	61%	19%	15%
2002	45%	27%	20%
Age 18-34
2001	60%	13%	14%
2002	34%	29%	28%
Under $30,000 income
2001	59%	18%	12%
2002	33%	29%	29%
$30-$60,000 income
2001	63%	17%	14%
2002	44%	26%	19%
Over $60,000 income
2001	66%	15%	13%
2002	50%	29%	15%
Private sector union
2001	47%	27%	12%
2002	32%	37%	16%
Public sector union
2001	50%	19%	24%
2002	28%	41%	24%
Non-union
2001	69%	14%	10%
2002	53%	21%	19%