May 21, 2002

The Poll on the Greens

The recent Ipsos-Reid poll raises questions about the Green party. On Vancouver Island the poll shows the Greens in second place with 31% of the decided voters compared to 33% for the BC Liberals and 27% for the NDP.

Overall the May 2002 Ipsos-Reid poll shows support for the Greens increasing to 20% compared to the 12% that they won in the 2001 election. The Greens gain of 8 points compares to a gain of 5 points for the NDP. The NDP increased its support to 27% from the 22% it won in the last election. The combined NDP and Green support now exceeds the BC Liberal support.

Examination of the Green Party and its support prompt some people to talk about a coalition that might be able to defeat the BC Liberals. Even if such a coalition were possible, many people might free betrayed if political fixers worked in the backrooms to reduce the choices available to voters. The repeated failure to "unite the right" on the federal scene should be ample evidence of the difficulties in joining existing political parties. It might be far better that each party clearly articulates its vision and lets the voter choose.

The Campbell Liberals might take some pleasure in observing that despite their falling popularity, their opposition might assure them perpetual power much like that enjoyed by the federal Liberals.

In the 2001 election the Green Party got more votes than the NDP in 12 of the 79 constituencies, however all 12 were held by the BC Liberals 1996-2001 (or were formed as new constituencies from traditional Liberal strength). Protest votes in safe BC Liberal ridings are heard but they do not contribute to fundamental change.

There were 9 constituencies in the 2001 election where the combined NDP and Green votes exceeded the BC Liberal vote. Two of those nine were won by the NDP. The other seven are Victoria-Beacon Hill, Victoria Hillside, Nelson-Creston, Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Nanaimo, Esquimal-Metchosin and Vancouver Kensington. There are a further five constituencies where the combined NDP and Green votes came within 5 points of the BC Liberal vote: Vancouver Burrard, North Coast, Surrey-Whalley, Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, and New Westminster. All of those constituencies (or what resembled them before redistribution) were previously held by the NDP.

Why is it that the Green Party appears capable of inflicting so much damage on the NDP? Perhaps it is because it appeals to former NDP voters, or perhaps it is because it is seen as a party of protest. The Green party website offers a few post-election news releases but it is still primarily focused on the last campaign. It offers little or no insight into how the party functions. It will take another election before observers will know whether the Green scoring in the polls is a "parked" vote or an indication of serious voting intention.

In the 1991 election the Green Party won 12,650 votes which was only 0.86 percent of the votes cast. In the 1996 election the Green vote increased to 31,511 which was just under 2 percent of the votes cast. Then Adrian Carr became leader and the NDP became unpopular.

The Green vote jumped to 197,231 (12.4%) of the votes cast in 2001. It is probably safe to assume that the 165,000 new votes earned by the Greens came either from new voters or from former NDP voters. The NDP vote dropped from 624,395 in 1996 to 343,156 in 2001. It appears that many former NDP voters also switched to the BC Liberals. If the NDP is going to recover, it must appeal to both types of voters. Based on the 2001 election results, even if the NDP won all of the Green votes, it would just mean an opposition caucus of between 9 and 14 members. The Ipsos-Reid poll shows things have changed since then. Lost BC Liberal support is going to both parties. We do not know whether the 8 point gain for the Greens is because people are attracted to the party, whether they are now angry at both the NDP and the BC Liberals, or whether "parked" support will shift as an election draws nearer.

The challenge for any party that wants to replace Gordon Campbell's Liberals is to win 40 or more seats. Any approach that falls short of having a chance at that goal condemns BC to a much longer period with an uncaring government. Can the Greens continue to rise and stand a chance? Anything is possible, but it would be an enormous reach for the Greens to make the jump from protest party to serious contender for power. Could they make the compromises that are necessary to govern for all parts of the province? Their current strategy is focused on gaining support for a referendum on proportionate representation although occasional attempts are made to deny that the referendum is sponsored by the Green party, Adrian Carr is the sponsor and the Green party website promotes that initiative. Some cracks have appeared as evidenced by an opposition site that has sprung up; Carr is criticized on it for her approach to proportionate representation. The site could be the work of disenchanted Greens.

The NDP is likely to stay clear of any bickering within the Green ranks. On August 12th at 4:30 PM the time will expire for gathering signatures on Carr's initiative. The focus will soon shift to whether Carr can move to create a competitive alternative to the government or whether she satisfies herself with fighting for a seat or two as a voice of protest. One way or the other, the Green Party might help Gordon Campbell enjoy the kind of division that benefits the federal Liberals.