October
31, 2001
No
Assurance in Offshore Update
Trust
us, engineers can solve any problem (sure). That could
well be the short version of the "British Columbia
Offshore Oil and Gas Technology Update" dated October
19, 2001. The 196 page report and three appendices are available
for download from the Ministry
of Energy & Mines website.
Appendix
2 contains a copy of a news release dated May 14, 2001,
from the Tsimshian
Nation and the Haida
Nation stating that they support the moratorium and
that the reasons for initiating the moratorium have not
changed. A careful reading of the updated report shows the
first nations are right.
By way
of background, the updated report claims to be unbiased
and says:
"This
report entitled British Columbia Offshore Oil and Gas Technology
Update is an update of the 1998 AGRA Earth and Environmental
Limited report Review of Offshore Development Technologies
prepared for the British Columbia Information, Science and
Technology Agency. This update report is a component of
the provincial government's review of the offshore oil and
gas moratorium and is an extension of the process that includes
the 1986 Offshore Hydrocarbon Exploration, a Report and
Recommendations of the West Coast Offshore Exploration Environmental
Assessment Panel and the 1998 AGRA report. Jacques Whitford
Environment Limited has prepared this document as an unbiased
update of offshore oil and gas engineering, environmental
and socio-economic factors, and state-of-the-art technologies."
(p. 173)
On page
172 the updated report says "In conclusion, the study
has found that there are no specific design, geohazard or
environmental issues that would preclude the development
of the offshore oil and gas reservoirs of British Columbia.
However, the economic viability of a specific reservoir
may be adversely impacted by the costs associated with mitigating
the geohazard and environmental risks."
Immediately
before that conclusion, the report makes a pitch for the
new catch word around the Campbell government - "results
based regulation" - when it says:
"One
of the important issues to be addressed by Government in
the regulation of oil and gas developments offshore will
be the degree to which regulations are prescriptive. The
eastern Canadian offshore regulations are heavily prescriptive
which can place a significant cost burden on potential offshore
activities. With the advances in the technology of offshore
investigations, drilling and production, there is significant
opportunity to use a results oriented, review and approval
process to ensure the highest economic benefit while ensuring
that the potential for environmental and safety risks are
adequately controlled."
One
can only suppose the results for those results based regulations
might include the number of species eliminated after a disaster,
and an estimate on how long the destruction of fisheries
and tourism might last. The updated report acknowledged
that "The area around the Queen Charlotte Islands,
Dixon Entrance, Hecate Strait and Queen Charlotte Sound
is known to be one of the most seismically active areas
of the world." (p. 62). It also acknowledged severe
storms and said "The waters surrounding the Queen Charlotte
Islands are commonly reported as the windiest in Canada
" (p. 55). If that isn't bad enough, the report
said "Given the close relationship between storm winds
and surface waves, wave conditions in the northern British
Columbia waters can also be considered relatively severe."
(p. 57)
The
approach of the report is to categorize each of these threats
as risks to be managed. For example, when discussing
tsunamis, the reports says:
"Satake
(2001) reports an analytical study of tsunami in the Pacific
Rim triggered by a large landslide in the Hawaiian Islands
and estimated that the tsunami height could be 30 m (100
feet) in the western margins of Dixon Entrance and Queen
Charlotte Sound. Lynett et al. (2001) also proposed a numerical
model for tsunamis. The site-specific tsunami-related design
parameters including wave heights and run-up can be estimated
for the oil and gas developments in British Columbia offshore
lease areas following such procedures. These parameters
should then be used in structural design and risk management
of offshore oil and gas facilities."
The
good news according to the report's summary of these risks
is that at least we don't have icebergs:
"In
summary, the northern waters of British Columbia present
a complex physical environment, with highly variable bathymetry,
strong winds and currents, and high waves during storm events.
The region is also one of high seismic activity, with the
associated risk of slope failure and tsunami generation.
Conversely, the significant risk to offshore facilities
posed by icebergs on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland is
not found on the west coast of Canada."
Anyone
concerned about our environment should carefully read the
updated report. There one does not find answers on how the
risks will be managed. Rather one finds assurances that
engineers have solved problems in other parts of the world.
The following is one example of that attitude that can be
characterized as trust the engineers:
"The
physical conditions under which offshore hydrocarbon exploration,
development and production activities occur impact engineering
designs, operational procedures and environmental impacts
associated with any contaminant releases to the marine environment.
Uncertainties in the physical parameters discussed in this
section can be dealt with through standard approaches such
as increased factors of safety included in engineering designs
and operational procedures, while environmental concerns
can be reduced through the incorporation of additional spill
prevention measures into offshore equipment. The net
effect of high uncertainties in the physical conditions
under which offshore activities are to occur is to increase
the cost of offshore activities and reduce the economic
feasibility of a given project, rather than to limit the
technical feasibility of offshore exploration."
(p. 67)(emphasis added)
Far
from offering assurances about the safety of drilling in
Hecate Strait, a careful read of the report confirms the
conclusions reached by the Tsimshian Nation and the Haida
Nation that the moratorium is necessary and the reasons
for initiating it have not changed.
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