December 10, 2001

Breaking Promises
with bad logic providing no place to hide

The Campbell government is claiming that everyone should have understood that freezing the health budget was part of their election promises.

Their promises included:
"Increase future health care funding as economic growth increases government revenues."
They are now saying:
"Economic growth has not increased government revenues, therefore health care funding will not increase."

In logic, this is known as the "contrapositive". The "contrapositive" of the proposition "If A, then B" is "If Not B, then Not A". The contrapositive is true whenever the original proposition is true.

But, the presumption the Campbell government is making in trying to say that they didn't deceive the public, is that what they are now doing really is the "contrapositive" of the proposition that was contained in the New Era Document.

The original promise did NOT say: "Increase future health care funding ONLY WHEN economic growth increases government revenues." If they had said that, then anyone could understand why they are now saying the health budget is frozen.

What the BC Liberals did promise during the election campaign was to "Fund health regions at a level necessary to meet the needs of the people who live there, regardless of where a service is provided." When that promise is combined with the funding promise, it is clear that no one had reason to presume that the "only when" condition was part of the funding promise. Rather, reasonable people ought to have presumed that the funding promise was a minimum guarantee to complement their rhetoric that shortages existed throughout the health system that require funding.

The Campbell government's attempt at creative interpretation of logical constructs is too cute by half. The fact is that the public increasingly, and accurately, sees that Premier Campbell is breaking his election promises.

---

December 9, 2001

New Speak in Government News Releases

The Campbell government is continuing its practice of New Speak for the New Era. The government news release on dramatic cuts to health benefits is headlined "Changes to health benefit plans to achieve cost savings and fairness". What's fair about financing high income tax cuts by cutting health benefits to people who are sick? How is shifting $129.4 million per year (in each and every year and rising) the same as a cost savings?

The Campbell government seems to be saying that your cost increase is their cost savings. Only sick folks need part of the $129.4 million in care. Dumping $129.4 million of costs onto sick folks is termed savings - that's sure not a savings for anyone who needs those services.

In one amazingly honest reference, the government news release labels the changes to Pharmacare as "INTERIM CHANGES". Interim, as in temporary, means that even worse changes are yet to come.

For a little perspective, at 5% interest (about the same as today's mortgage rates) $129.4 million per year is the same as a one time cost shift of $2.6 billion. That's several times more than the total of all of the mistakes Premier Campbell ever blamed on the NDP, and there are a lot more of Premier Campbell's New Errors to come.

---

December 8, 2001

Dramatic Cost Shifting is Just the Start!

The shocking revelation that $129 million in health care costs will be shifted onto sick people is just the start of the bill for reckless tax cuts. Those who now face significant bills for chiropractors, physiotherapists and other practitioners may increasingly turn to physicians and hospitals putting even more pressure on the system.

Health Minister Collin Hansen admitted recently that the budget freeze for health will mean a $700 million shortfall for fiscal year 2002-03. That means there must be another $471 million in cuts just to stand still!

A voice clip from Hansen on CBC radio includes the Minister's assurance that some people will have the shifted costs picked up by private insurers through extended health plans. Hansen appears to be ignoring how much of that cost shift will go directly back on public sector employers. Most of the government's extended health plans for public sector employees are financed on a cost plus basis. That means all those shifted costs will immediately shift back onto schools, colleges, universities, hospitals, crown corporations and government ministries.

I have submitted a Freedom of Information Request to determine how much of the shifted health costs will be shifted right back onto public sector employers. If those estimates don't exist, it will show that the self styled good managers are in over their heads. Some insurers may be hit hard as fully insured plans receive this unexpected liability, but worst of all will be the plight of hundreds of thousands of people who get personally stuck with a choice of doing without or picking up the tab.

---

December 4, 2001

Don't Get Sick in BC

Speaking on the CKNW Bill Good show on Monday, Dec. 3rd, Health Services Minister Collin Hansen admitted the freeze on the health budget will mean a $700 million SHORTFALL next year. In other words, just to maintain this year's inadequate level of service would require $700 million more than the Campbell government will provide, and that's just year one of a three year freeze! That is precisely the amount that was predicted here two months ago. That is also precisely the amount that implies that 6,000 nurses will be laid off over the next three years, and that assumes that cuts to nursing only absorb 15% of the total shortfall as they now do of total health costs.

---

November 2 , 2001

Undoing the Safety Net

Statistics Canada reported "Employment fell 14,000 in British Columbia, bringing total losses since the start of 2001 to 52,000 (-2.6%). October's declines were in manufacturing as well as health care and social assistance." They might have added that the loss of 14,000 jobs between September and October is on a seasonally adjusted basis. The actual loss before applying statistical smoothing was 44,200 in just one month!

At a time when jobs in the forest industry are down it is disturbing that jobs in health care and social assistance have also fallen. That is before the massive layoffs start as the consequence of the failed tax polices - the ones that we were told would pay for themselves. Nurses and social workers who find themselves unemployed as the result of the Campbell government adjusting to "budget pressures" won't have the comfort that was afforded to the downsized Deputy Minister of Health Planning.

---

October 26, 2001

Bigger Health Cuts to Come

Keith Baldry of Global TV has reported on plans in the Ministry of Health to cut 45% of the ministry's direct operating budget in the next three years. That is a reduction of $85 million and the probable layoff of over 1,000 staff.

Do not for a minute think it stops there. A cut of $85 million over 3 years is only 4% of the amount that will have to be cut out of health as the result of the budget freeze. A lot of people probably thought that Gordon Campbell really would protect health care rather than engage in tricky wording in his campaign platform. Now we see the harsh reality - some campaign promises count a lot more than others.

---

October 18, 2001

Get Real Mr. Premier

CKNW has quoted Premier Campbell as denying that people are paying for their tax cuts with new user fees or cuts to services.

Sometimes he says, "How did you spend your $2,000?" Duh, it takes an income of over $80,000 per year in order to get a $2,000 tax cut! Only one third of BC taxpayers enjoy an income at least that high. Another one third of BC taxpayers have incomes less than $15,000 per year. The tax cuts do not work out proportionally as you go down in income. For the bottom third, the annual tax cuts average out to 52 cents per week. If an eye exam costs $85, then it would take the folks at the bottom three years of saving their tax cuts before they could pay for one eye exam.

It is sad that the Premier cannot identify with the folks at the bottom of the heap. Moves to "de-insure" other benefits, reduce employment standards so as to make it unnecessary to pay for at least four hours, not to mention moves to layoff thousands of workers are all moves that will make life harder for people at the bottom of the heap. Knowing that their suffering helped to pay for the tax cuts of the Deputy Ministers who got a 35% pay increase so as to attract the best and the brightest somehow won't ease the pain.

The eye exams and delisting of Pharmacare benefits are just the tip of the iceberg. Government estimates that these cuts will shift $15 million in costs onto those who need the services. Government is looking to cut $400 million from health spending this year and the freeze will make it necessary to cut a further $700 million in each of the next three years. It takes a lot of $15 million cost shifts to add up to that kind of money.

---

October 12, 2001

Health Minister Hansen misses mark by 100 fold!

Health Minister Colin Hansen seems to be on the defensive about having to layoff nurses. According to CBC, Hansen is dismissing concerns about future nursing layoffs by saying that $21 million has been set aside for nurse recruitment. Spaceship to Hansen: $21 million is 1/100th of the $2.126 billion shortfall you will have by 2004/05 - and that doesn't account for the money you'll need for your campaign promises.

Remember the promise that said "Fund health regions at a level necessary to meet the needs of the people who live there, regardless of where a service is provided." Or how about the one that said "Develop a Medical Machinery and Equipment Plan that ensures existing medical diagnostic and care equipment is adequately staffed, fully utilized and properly maintained, and that provides for future investments in new equipment and technologies."

Given historical spending increases (justified by population growth, aging of the population, inflation and backlogs), a freeze translates into cutting $2 billion by 2004/05. It is actually worse, because as Finance Minister Collins reported in his First Quarterly Report, there are currently $400 million in excess spending pressures in health - that means cuts will start now. St Pauls Hospital recognized that and closed 67 beds the day after the last staged cabinet meeting where Finance Minister Collins released his infamous chart showing the freeze.

According to CBC, Minister Hansen is now saying that the freeze can be covered in areas like unnecessary prescriptions, administration and unnecessary referrals to specialists. Given the competence shown by the flight instructor turned Finance Minister, that's the guy who promised tax cuts would pay for themselves and who increased the deficit by more than the cost of the entire fast ferry project after just six weeks, would you trust these guys to determine whether you need a specialist or a prescription? Just who will determine what is not necessary so Minister Hansen can save his $2 billion?

---

October 6, 2001